Hibernian vs Falkirk preview
Hibernian faces Falkirk with a 53% chance of winning compared to Falkirk's 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 12% probability. Hibernian's expected goals stand at 1.47, while Falkirk's is lower at 0.95.
Both teams to score has a 49% chance, and Over 2.5 goals is at 44%. Hibernian's recent form shows 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Falkirk has managed just 1 win in their last 6. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Hibernian vs Falkirk: model vs market
| Source | Hibernian | Draw | Falkirk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 29% | 24% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Edge | -10% | +5% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.96.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Hibernian vs Falkirk odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hibernian, 50 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian | 1.70 | 1.64 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.83 | 3.96 | +0.13 |
| Falkirk | 4.42 | 4.90 | +0.48 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hibernian and Falkirk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (Hibernian / Falkirk)
- 0.77 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Hibernian / Falkirk)
- 0.99 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hibernian vs Falkirk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hibernian goals. Columns: Falkirk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hibernian vs Falkirk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hibernian vs Falkirk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hibernian | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Falkirk | 20% | 4.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hibernian or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Falkirk) | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hibernian win by 2+ | 24% | 4.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Hibernian and Falkirk recent form
Hibernian
1W 1D 4L
Falkirk
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hibernian at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Falkirk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hibernian at home only, Falkirk away only.
Hibernian vs Falkirk head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Hibernian 5 · draws 3 · Falkirk 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Falkirk | 1-3 | Hibernian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-01-24 | Falkirk | 4-1 | Hibernian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-12-06 | Hibernian | 3-0 | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-09-23 | Falkirk | 2-2 | Hibernian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2022-07-12 | Falkirk | 1-0 | Hibernian | League Cup |
| 2017-03-25 | Hibernian | 2-1 | Falkirk | Championship |
| 2016-12-31 | Falkirk | 1-2 | Hibernian | Championship |
| 2016-11-12 | Hibernian | 1-1 | Falkirk | Championship |
| 2016-08-06 | Falkirk | 1-2 | Hibernian | Championship |
| 2016-04-12 | Hibernian | 2-2 | Falkirk | Championship |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kilmarnock vs Motherwell 2026-10-17
- Aberdeen v ST Mirren — match page 2026-10-17
- ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd 2026-10-17
- Dundee vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Celtic v Heart Of Midlothian — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Hibernian, previous: Dundee Utd vs Hibernian prediction
- Falkirk, previous: Falkirk – Dundee, 2026-10-10