Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht preview
In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Jagiellonia and Anderlecht, the 1X2 probabilities show Anderlecht at 46%, while Jagiellonia sits at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance of occurring. Jagiellonia's expected goals are 1.15, compared to Anderlecht's 1.57, indicating a stronger attacking potential for the visitors.
The model suggests a 51% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 55% probability for both teams to score. However, Jagiellonia's recent form of L-L-L-L-W-L could impact their performance negatively, while Anderlecht's W-W-L-W-D-W form may boost their confidence.
Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht: model vs market
| Source | Jagiellonia | Draw | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Jagiellonia and Anderlecht expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (Jagiellonia / Anderlecht)
- 1.09 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Jagiellonia / Anderlecht)
- 1.22 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jagiellonia goals. Columns: Anderlecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jagiellonia | 27% | 3.77 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Anderlecht | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jagiellonia or draw) | 54% | 1.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Anderlecht) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Anderlecht win by 2+ | 24% | 4.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Jagiellonia and Anderlecht recent form
Jagiellonia
1W 0D 5L
Anderlecht
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jagiellonia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Anderlecht away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jagiellonia at home only, Anderlecht away only.
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Before and after this match
- Jagiellonia, previous: Zaglebie Lubin v Jagiellonia analysis
- Jagiellonia, next: Lechia Gdansk – Jagiellonia, 2026-10-28
- Anderlecht, previous: Beerschot VA – Anderlecht, 2026-10-18