FK Jablonec vs Brighton preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League fixture between FK Jablonec and Brighton, the 1X2 probabilities show FK Jablonec at 40%, draw at 29%, and Brighton at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 10% chance of occurring.
Both teams to score stands at 53%, indicating a slightly higher likelihood that both teams will find the net. However, with expected goals of 1.38 for FK Jablonec and 1.16 for Brighton, the match could lean towards a low-scoring affair. Recent form also shows FK Jablonec with mixed results, while Brighton has been more consistent with four wins in their last five matches.
FK Jablonec vs Brighton: model vs market
| Source | FK Jablonec | Draw | Brighton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 29% | 30% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 29% | 30% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FK Jablonec and Brighton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (FK Jablonec / Brighton)
- 0.86 / 1.43
- Defence rating (FK Jablonec / Brighton)
- 0.68 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Jablonec vs Brighton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Jablonec goals. Columns: Brighton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Jablonec vs Brighton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Jablonec vs Brighton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Jablonec | 40% | 2.47 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Brighton | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Jablonec or draw) | 70% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Brighton) | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Jablonec win by 2+ | 20% | 5.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FK Jablonec and Brighton recent form
FK Jablonec
2W 2D 2L
Brighton
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Jablonec at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Brighton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Jablonec at home only, Brighton away only.
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Before and after this match
- FK Jablonec, previous: FK Jablonec vs Plzen prediction
- Brighton, previous: Brighton vs Crystal Palace: odds and pick
- Brighton, next: Manchester City vs Brighton prediction