Pardubice vs Zlin preview
Pardubice hosts Zlin with a 56% chance of winning, while Zlin's probability sits at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring 11% of the time in our model. Pardubice has a stronger recent form with 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, while Zlin has lost 5 in a row.
The model suggests a 50% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score. However, if Zlin can improve their performance and find the net, it could challenge the expected outcome. Pardubice's expected goals are 1.76, compared to Zlin's 0.93, indicating a significant gap in attacking effectiveness.
Pardubice vs Zlin: model vs market
| Source | Pardubice | Draw | Zlin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 28% | 23% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Published | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | -8% | +4% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Pardubice vs Zlin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Pardubice, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pardubice | 1.75 | 1.61 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.86 | +0.26 |
| Zlin | 4.30 | 5.08 | +0.78 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Pardubice and Zlin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.57
- Attack rating (Pardubice / Zlin)
- 0.86 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Pardubice / Zlin)
- 1.08 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pardubice vs Zlin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pardubice goals. Columns: Zlin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pardubice vs Zlin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pardubice vs Zlin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pardubice | 56% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Zlin | 19% | 5.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pardubice or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Zlin) | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pardubice win by 2+ | 27% | 3.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pardubice and Zlin recent form
Pardubice
2W 1D 3L
Zlin
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pardubice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Zlin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pardubice at home only, Zlin away only.
Pardubice vs Zlin head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Pardubice 3 · draws 3 · Zlin 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Pardubice | 3-1 | Zlin | Czech Liga |
| 2025-10-25 | Zlin | 2-2 | Pardubice | Czech Liga |
| 2024-05-04 | Pardubice | 2-0 | Zlin | Czech Liga |
| 2024-04-14 | Zlin | 1-1 | Pardubice | Czech Liga |
| 2023-11-04 | Pardubice | 0-1 | Zlin | Czech Liga |
| 2023-05-21 | Pardubice | 1-2 | Zlin | Czech Liga |
| 2023-02-19 | Pardubice | 2-1 | Zlin | Czech Liga |
| 2022-08-30 | Zlin | 2-1 | Pardubice | Czech Liga |
| 2022-05-10 | Pardubice | 1-1 | Zlin | Czech Liga |
| 2022-03-19 | Zlin | 4-1 | Pardubice | Czech Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice 2026-10-17
- Artis vs Bohemians 1905 2026-10-17
- Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Slovácko v Zbrojovka Brno — match page 2026-10-18
- Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha 2026-10-18
- FK Jablonec v Plzen — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Pardubice, previous: Sparta Praha vs Pardubice prediction
- Zlin, previous: Zlin vs Slavia Praha: odds and pick