Marko vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction & Betting Tips 28/10/2026

Marko vs Olympiakos Piraeus preview

In the Greece Cup fixture between Marko and Olympiakos Piraeus, the 1X2 probabilities show Marko at 37%, a draw at 34%, and Olympiakos Piraeus at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance according to our model.

Marko has an expected goals figure of 1.03, while Olympiakos Piraeus stands at 0.88. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 30%, and both teams to score is at 39%. These lower probabilities suggest that the match could be tight, and any significant changes in team form or tactics could affect the outcome.

Marko vs Olympiakos Piraeus: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Marko	Draw	Olympiakos Piraeus
Model	37%	34%	29%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	34%	29%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Marko and Olympiakos Piraeus expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.03Marko

0.88Olympiakos Piraeus

Total expected goals: 1.91
Attack rating (Marko / Olympiakos Piraeus): 1.09 / 0.97
Defence rating (Marko / Olympiakos Piraeus): 0.72 / 0.62

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Marko vs Olympiakos Piraeus score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.2% 11.7% 5.7% 1.7% 0.4% 1 13.9% 14.8% 5.9% 1.7% 0.5% 2 7.9% 6.9% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 3 2.7% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Marko goals. Columns: Olympiakos Piraeus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Marko vs Olympiakos Piraeus goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%

Over 1.5 58%

Over 2.5 30%

Over 3.5 13%

Both teams to score: 39%
No goals (0–0): 16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Marko vs Olympiakos Piraeus

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Marko	37%	2.71
	Draw	34%	2.92
	Olympiakos Piraeus	29%	3.48
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	30%	3.35
	Under 2.5	70%	1.43
Both teams to score	Yes	39%	2.57
	No	61%	1.64
Double chance	1X (Marko or draw)	71%	1.40
	12 (either side)	66%	1.52
	X2 (draw or Olympiakos Piraeus)	63%	1.59
Handicap -1	Marko win by 2+	15%	6.68
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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