Updated

Greece Cup · Greek Cup - 4

Panserraikos vs Niki Volos

· Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Serres

Alin prediction Niki Volos to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PanserraikosDrawNiki Volos

Panserraikos vs Niki Volos preview

In the Greece Cup fixture between Panserraikos and Niki Volos, the 1X2 probabilities show Niki Volos at 36%, slightly ahead of Panserraikos at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with an 11% probability. Both teams to score stands at 48%, indicating a near-even chance for both sides to find the net.

Panserraikos has an expected goals figure of 1.11, while Niki Volos has a slightly higher expected goals at 1.17. This suggests a competitive match, but the confidence grade is C, which indicates uncertainty in the outcome. Factors like recent form could influence the match, as Panserraikos has W-D-W-L-L-W while Niki Volos has W-D-W-L-L-L.

Panserraikos vs Niki Volos: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePanserraikosDrawNiki Volos
Model33%31%36%
Market———
Published33%31%36%
Edge———

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Panserraikos and Niki Volos expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.11Panserraikos
1.17Niki Volos
Total expected goals
2.28
Attack rating (Panserraikos / Niki Volos)
0.94 / 0.75
Defence rating (Panserraikos / Niki Volos)
1.25 / 0.78

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Panserraikos vs Niki Volos score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.6% 10.6% 7.0% 2.7% 1.0% 1 10.1% 14.6% 7.8% 3.0% 1.1% 2 6.3% 7.4% 4.3% 1.7% 0.6% 3 2.3% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 0.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Panserraikos goals. Columns: Niki Volos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Panserraikos vs Niki Volos goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Panserraikos vs Niki Volos

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Panserraikos33%3.03
Draw31%3.21
Niki Volos36%2.79
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.51
Under 2.560%1.66
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.10
No52%1.91
Double chance1X (Panserraikos or draw)64%1.56
12 (either side)69%1.45
X2 (draw or Niki Volos)67%1.49
Handicap -1Niki Volos win by 2+16%6.43
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Panserraikos and Niki Volos recent form

Panserraikos 3W 1D 2L
Niki Volos 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Panserraikos at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Niki Volos away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Panserraikos at home only, Niki Volos away only.

Other Greek Cup - 4 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Niki Volos to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Niki Volos