Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis preview
In the Greece Cup fixture between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis, the 1X2 probabilities show Panathinaikos at 57%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 12%. Panathinaikos has a stronger recent form, winning 5 of their last 6 matches, while Aris Thessalonikis has only won 1 of their last 6.
The expected goals indicate Panathinaikos at 1.71 and Aris Thessalonikis at 0.83, suggesting a low-scoring match. However, both teams to score stands at 47%, which means there is a chance Aris could find the net. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis: model vs market
| Source | Panathinaikos | Draw | Aris Thessalonikis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Panathinaikos / Aris Thessalonikis)
- 1.21 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Panathinaikos / Aris Thessalonikis)
- 0.62 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Panathinaikos goals. Columns: Aris Thessalonikis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panathinaikos | 57% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Aris Thessalonikis | 17% | 5.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Panathinaikos or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Aris Thessalonikis) | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Panathinaikos win by 2+ | 33% | 3.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis recent form
Panathinaikos
5W 0D 1L
Aris Thessalonikis
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Panathinaikos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Aris Thessalonikis away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Panathinaikos at home only, Aris Thessalonikis away only.
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Panathinaikos 2 · draws 1 · Aris Thessalonikis 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Panathinaikos | 3-1 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| 2026-01-14 | Panathinaikos | 3-0 | Aris Thessalonikis | Greece Cup |
| 2025-10-19 | Aris Thessalonikis | 1-1 | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 |
Other Greek Cup - 4 fixtures
- Panserraikos vs Niki Volos — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Asteras Tripolis vs Kifisia 2026-10-27
- Nestos Chrisoupolis v Kalamata — match page 2026-10-28
- Marko vs Olympiakos Piraeus — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Levadiakos v Kifisia — match page 2026-10-28
- Larisa vs OFI 2026-10-28
- PAOK vs AEK Athens FC — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Volos NFC vs Atromitos 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Panathinaikos, previous: Kairat Almaty – Panathinaikos, 2026-10-22
- Aris Thessalonikis, previous: Kifisia v Aris Thessalonikis analysis