Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis preview
In the Super League 1 match between Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis, the 1X2 probabilities show Aris Thessalonikis at 44%, while Levadiakos sits at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15% chance according to our model. Aris Thessalonikis has been in better recent form, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, compared to Levadiakos, who has only 1 win in their last 6.
The expected goals indicate Levadiakos at 0.82 and Aris Thessalonikis at 1.25, suggesting a potential for a low-scoring game. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 34%, and both teams to score is at 41%. A draw is also a possibility at 29%, which could challenge the expected outcome.
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis: model vs market
| Source | Levadiakos | Draw | Aris Thessalonikis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 31% | 48% |
| Market | 25% | 29% | 47% |
| Published | 24% | 29% | 47% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aris Thessalonikis, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levadiakos | 3.32 | 3.78 | +0.46 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Aris Thessalonikis | 2.15 | 2.00 | -0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.13
- Attack rating (Levadiakos / Aris Thessalonikis)
- 0.58 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Levadiakos / Aris Thessalonikis)
- 0.95 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Levadiakos goals. Columns: Aris Thessalonikis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Levadiakos | 24% | 4.21 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Aris Thessalonikis | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.40 |
| No | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Levadiakos or draw) | 53% | 1.89 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Aris Thessalonikis) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aris Thessalonikis win by 2+ | 24% | 4.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis recent form
Levadiakos
0W 3D 3L
Aris Thessalonikis
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Levadiakos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aris Thessalonikis away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Levadiakos at home only, Aris Thessalonikis away only.
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Levadiakos 1 · draws 4 · Aris Thessalonikis 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Aris Thessalonikis | 3-0 | Levadiakos | Super League 1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Levadiakos | 1-1 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Aris Thessalonikis | 2-2 | Levadiakos | Super League 1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Levadiakos | 1-1 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| 2025-02-16 | Levadiakos | 4-1 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| 2024-11-03 | Aris Thessalonikis | 3-1 | Levadiakos | Super League 1 |
| 2023-01-11 | Aris Thessalonikis | 1-0 | Levadiakos | Cup |
| 2022-12-21 | Levadiakos | 1-1 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| 2022-12-16 | Levadiakos | 1-2 | Aris Thessalonikis | Cup |
| 2022-08-21 | Aris Thessalonikis | 3-0 | Levadiakos | Super League 1 |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kifisia v Olympiakos Piraeus — match page 2026-10-31
- Panetolikos v OFI — match page 2026-11-01
- Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis 2026-11-01
- Atromitos vs Volos NFC — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Levadiakos, previous: Levadiakos – Kifisia, 2026-10-28
- Aris Thessalonikis, previous: Panathinaikos v Aris Thessalonikis analysis