Updated

Super League 1 · Matchday 9

Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908

· Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium, Kalamata

Alin prediction Kalamata to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
KalamataDrawIraklis 1908
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.37.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Kalamata is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Kalamata2.38 Draw3.25 Iraklis 19083.43

Price as of

Expected return at 2.38: -0.2% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 7 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKalamataDrawIraklis 1908
Model44%26%30%
Market41%30%29%
Published42%29%29%
Edge+1%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.37.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Kalamata, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.

Opened 2.46Now 2.27 -0.19
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Kalamata2.462.27-0.19
Draw3.243.15-0.09
Iraklis 19082.793.20+0.42

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Kalamata and Iraklis 1908 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.71Kalamata
1.37Iraklis 1908
Total expected goals
3.08
Attack rating (Kalamata / Iraklis 1908)
1.19 / 0.93
Defence rating (Kalamata / Iraklis 1908)
1.32 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.7% 5.2% 4.3% 2.0% 0.9% 1 6.8% 11.8% 7.4% 3.4% 1.6% 2 6.7% 9.2% 6.3% 2.9% 1.3% 3 3.8% 5.2% 3.6% 1.6% 0.8% 4+ 2.4% 3.3% 2.3% 1.0% 0.5%

Rows: Kalamata goals. Columns: Iraklis 1908 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kalamata42%2.38
Draw29%3.49
Iraklis 190829%3.40
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.68
Under 2.540%2.47
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.61
No38%2.65
Double chance1X (Kalamata or draw)71%1.42
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Iraklis 1908)58%1.72
Handicap -1Kalamata win by 2+24%4.16
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites
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Kalamata and Iraklis 1908 recent form

Kalamata 3W 1D 2L
Iraklis 1908 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kalamata at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.

Iraklis 1908 away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Kalamata at home only, Iraklis 1908 away only.

Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908 head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Kalamata 1 · draws 0 · Iraklis 1908 0.

KalamataDrawsIraklis 1908
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-28Kalamata1-0Iraklis 1908Super League 2

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Kalamata to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Kalamata
Our pick: Kalamata to win 18+ Bet Now