PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis preview
In the Super League 1 fixture between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis, PAOK has a 69% chance of winning compared to Asteras Tripolis's 12%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which occurs with a 10% probability. PAOK's expected goals stand at 1.89, while Asteras Tripolis has 1.00 expected goals.
Recent form shows PAOK with three wins in their last five matches, while Asteras Tripolis has two wins in the same period. Both teams have a 55% chance for Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. However, if Asteras Tripolis improves their performance or PAOK underperforms, the outcome could differ from the predictions.
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis: model vs market
| Source | PAOK | Draw | Asteras Tripolis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Market | 73% | 18% | 10% |
| Published | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Edge | -4% | +2% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.31, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis odds movement
Median bookmaker price on PAOK, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK | 1.29 | 1.29 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 5.08 | 5.35 | +0.27 |
| Asteras Tripolis | 9.35 | 9.50 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
PAOK and Asteras Tripolis expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (PAOK / Asteras Tripolis)
- 1.16 / 0.87
- Defence rating (PAOK / Asteras Tripolis)
- 1.02 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: PAOK goals. Columns: Asteras Tripolis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PAOK | 69% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.20 | |
| Asteras Tripolis | 12% | 8.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (PAOK or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Asteras Tripolis) | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | PAOK win by 2+ | 34% | 2.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
PAOK and Asteras Tripolis recent form
PAOK
4W 0D 2L
Asteras Tripolis
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
PAOK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Asteras Tripolis away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: PAOK at home only, Asteras Tripolis away only.
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: PAOK 1 · draws 1 · Asteras Tripolis 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | PAOK | 2-0 | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Asteras Tripolis | 3-3 | PAOK | Super League 1 |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kifisia v Olympiakos Piraeus — match page 2026-10-31
- Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Panetolikos v OFI — match page 2026-11-01
- Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Atromitos vs Volos NFC — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- PAOK, previous: PAOK vs AEK Athens FC: odds and pick
- Asteras Tripolis, previous: Asteras Tripolis – Kifisia, 2026-10-27