Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC preview
In the Super League 1 fixture, Panathinaikos faces AEK Athens FC with 44% probability for a Panathinaikos win and a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 10%. The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 65%.
However, Panathinaikos has only won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches against AEK Athens FC, who have 3 wins in that same period. Recent form shows Panathinaikos with 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 6 games, while AEK Athens FC has 4 wins and 2 losses. This recent performance could impact the predicted outcome.
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC: model vs market
| Source | Panathinaikos | Draw | AEK Athens FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 22% | 20% |
| Market | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Published | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Edge | +5% | -2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Panathinaikos below our published probability: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Panathinaikos, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 2.34 | 2.38 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.35 | +0.15 |
| AEK Athens FC | 2.97 | 2.81 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Panathinaikos and AEK Athens FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (Panathinaikos / AEK Athens FC)
- 1.63 / 1.83
- Defence rating (Panathinaikos / AEK Athens FC)
- 0.61 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Panathinaikos goals. Columns: AEK Athens FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panathinaikos | 44% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| AEK Athens FC | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.55 |
| No | 35% | 2.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Panathinaikos or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or AEK Athens FC) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Panathinaikos win by 2+ | 38% | 2.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Panathinaikos and AEK Athens FC recent form
Panathinaikos
5W 0D 1L
AEK Athens FC
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Panathinaikos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
AEK Athens FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Panathinaikos at home only, AEK Athens FC away only.
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Panathinaikos 0 · draws 1 · AEK Athens FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | AEK Athens FC | 2-1 | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Panathinaikos | 0-0 | AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 |
| 2026-01-18 | AEK Athens FC | 4-0 | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Panathinaikos | 2-3 | AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kifisia v Olympiakos Piraeus — match page 2026-10-31
- Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Panetolikos v OFI — match page 2026-11-01
- PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis 2026-11-01
- Atromitos vs Volos NFC — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Panathinaikos, previous: Panathinaikos v Aris Thessalonikis analysis
- Panathinaikos, next: Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia, 2026-11-05
- AEK Athens FC, previous: PAOK vs AEK Athens FC: odds and pick
- AEK Athens FC, next: AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid prediction