Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata preview
Asteras Tripolis faces Kalamata with 44% probability for a home win and a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 8%. The expected goals show Asteras Tripolis at 1.42 and Kalamata at 1.57, indicating a competitive match.
The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 61%. However, the recent form shows Asteras Tripolis with L-D-L-W-D-W and Kalamata with W-L-W-W-L-D, which could influence the outcome. The confidence grade is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata: model vs market
| Source | Asteras Tripolis | Draw | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 26% |
| Published | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Asteras Tripolis, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asteras Tripolis | 1.97 | 2.01 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.40 | +0.10 |
| Kalamata | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.99
- Attack rating (Asteras Tripolis / Kalamata)
- 0.80 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Asteras Tripolis / Kalamata)
- 1.20 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Asteras Tripolis goals. Columns: Kalamata goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Asteras Tripolis | 43% | 2.32 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Kalamata | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Asteras Tripolis or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Kalamata) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Asteras Tripolis win by 2+ | 16% | 6.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata recent form
Asteras Tripolis
1W 2D 3L
Kalamata
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Asteras Tripolis at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Kalamata away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Asteras Tripolis at home only, Kalamata away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Volos NFC vs Kifisia — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos 2026-11-07
- AEK Athens FC v Levadiakos — match page 2026-11-08
- Iraklis 1908 vs Panathinaikos 2026-11-08
- OFI v Atromitos — match page 2026-11-08
- Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Asteras Tripolis, previous: PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis prediction
- Kalamata, previous: Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908: odds and pick