Updated

Super League 1 · Matchday 10

Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos

· Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Thessaloniki· Referee Panagiotis Koukoulas

Alin prediction Aris Thessalonikis to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Aris ThessalonikisDrawPanetolikos
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 0.88.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aris Thessalonikis is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Aris Thessalonikis1.40 Draw4.90 Panetolikos8.00

Price as of

Expected return at 1.40: -5.4% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos preview

In the Super League 1 match between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos, the 1X2 probabilities show Aris at 67%, while Panetolikos sits at 12%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an 11% chance. Aris Thessalonikis has an expected goals figure of 2.59, compared to Panetolikos's 0.85, suggesting a strong offensive performance from Aris.

However, recent form could influence the outcome. Aris Thessalonikis has won 4 of their last 6 matches, while Panetolikos has lost 5 of their last 6. While Aris is favored, factors like an unexpected defensive performance from Panetolikos or a rare scoring chance could lead to different results. The model indicates a 67% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score.

Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAris ThessalonikisDrawPanetolikos
Model67%20%13%
Market68%21%12%
Published68%21%12%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 0.88.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aris Thessalonikis, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-24.

Opened 1.45Now 1.38 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Aris Thessalonikis1.451.38-0.07
Draw4.154.53+0.38
Panetolikos7.257.95+0.70

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.23Aris Thessalonikis
0.88Panetolikos
Total expected goals
3.11
Attack rating (Aris Thessalonikis / Panetolikos)
1.06 / 0.70
Defence rating (Aris Thessalonikis / Panetolikos)
1.13 / 1.41

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 3.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 1 9.0% 9.6% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 2 11.1% 9.8% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 3 8.2% 7.3% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 7.8% 6.8% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2%

Rows: Aris Thessalonikis goals. Columns: Panetolikos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Aris Thessalonikis68%1.48
Draw21%4.88
Panetolikos12%8.39
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.66
Under 2.540%2.51
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.88
No47%2.14
Double chance1X (Aris Thessalonikis or draw)88%1.14
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Panetolikos)32%3.08
Handicap -1Aris Thessalonikis win by 2+45%2.24
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos recent form

Aris Thessalonikis 3W 1D 2L
Panetolikos 0W 0D 6L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aris Thessalonikis at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Panetolikos away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Aris Thessalonikis at home only, Panetolikos away only.

Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 7 · draws 1 · Panetolikos 2.

Aris ThessalonikisDrawsPanetolikos
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-31Panetolikos0-1Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
2026-01-06Aris Thessalonikis2-0PanetolikosGreece Cup
2025-09-17Panetolikos0-1Aris ThessalonikisGreece Cup
2025-08-30Aris Thessalonikis0-2PanetolikosSuper League 1
2025-02-23Aris Thessalonikis2-1PanetolikosSuper League 1
2024-11-09Panetolikos2-1Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
2024-03-06Aris Thessalonikis0-0PanetolikosCup
2024-02-13Panetolikos0-1Aris ThessalonikisCup
2024-01-14Panetolikos0-4Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
2023-09-24Aris Thessalonikis3-0PanetolikosSuper League 1

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Aris Thessalonikis to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on Aris Thessalonikis
Our pick: Aris Thessalonikis to win 18+ Bet Now