Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK preview
In the Super League 1 match between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK, the 1X2 probabilities show Olympiakos Piraeus at 60%, PAOK at 17%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13% chance according to our model. Olympiakos Piraeus has been in strong form with 6 consecutive wins, while PAOK has a mixed recent record of 4 wins and 2 losses.
However, Olympiakos Piraeus has not won against PAOK in their last 5 encounters, with 2 draws and 3 losses. This could impact the expected goals, where Olympiakos is projected at 2.13 and PAOK at 0.77. The model suggests a 55% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score, indicating potential for a high-scoring game.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK: model vs market
| Source | Olympiakos Piraeus | Draw | PAOK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| Market | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Published | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Olympiakos Piraeus, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 1.89 | 1.57 | -0.32 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 4.10 | +0.65 |
| PAOK | 3.96 | 5.40 | +1.44 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Olympiakos Piraeus / PAOK)
- 1.30 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Olympiakos Piraeus / PAOK)
- 0.50 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Olympiakos Piraeus goals. Columns: PAOK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 61% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| PAOK | 16% | 6.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.22 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Olympiakos Piraeus or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or PAOK) | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Olympiakos Piraeus win by 2+ | 41% | 2.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK recent form
Olympiakos Piraeus
5W 1D 0L
PAOK
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Olympiakos Piraeus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
PAOK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus at home only, PAOK away only.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Olympiakos Piraeus 0 · draws 2 · PAOK 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1-1 | PAOK | Super League 1 |
| 2026-05-03 | PAOK | 3-1 | Olympiakos Piraeus | Super League 1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 0-0 | PAOK | Super League 1 |
| 2026-01-14 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 0-2 | PAOK | Greece Cup |
| 2025-10-05 | PAOK | 2-1 | Olympiakos Piraeus | Super League 1 |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- AEK Athens FC v Levadiakos — match page 2026-11-08
- Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Iraklis 1908 vs Panathinaikos 2026-11-08
- OFI v Atromitos — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Olympiakos Piraeus, previous: Rennes – Olympiakos Piraeus, 2026-11-04
- Olympiakos Piraeus, next: Olympiakos Piraeus vs AC Milan: odds and pick
- PAOK, previous: PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis prediction