Asteras Tripolis vs Kifisia preview
In the Greece Cup fixture, Asteras Tripolis has a 46% probability to win against Kifisia, who sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 11% chance of occurring. Asteras Tripolis has an expected goals figure of 1.46 compared to Kifisia's 1.02, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, the recent form shows Asteras Tripolis with mixed results (W-D-W-D-D-W) while Kifisia has won 2 of their last 6 matches (W-W-L-D-L-L). With both teams having a 50% chance to score, the match could easily deviate from the predicted outcome. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the final result.
Asteras Tripolis vs Kifisia: model vs market
| Source | Asteras Tripolis | Draw | Kifisia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Asteras Tripolis and Kifisia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.48
- Attack rating (Asteras Tripolis / Kifisia)
- 1.06 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Asteras Tripolis / Kifisia)
- 0.84 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Asteras Tripolis vs Kifisia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Asteras Tripolis goals. Columns: Kifisia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Asteras Tripolis vs Kifisia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Asteras Tripolis vs Kifisia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Asteras Tripolis | 46% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Kifisia | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Asteras Tripolis or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Kifisia) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Asteras Tripolis win by 2+ | 23% | 4.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Asteras Tripolis and Kifisia recent form
Asteras Tripolis
3W 3D 0L
Kifisia
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Asteras Tripolis at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Kifisia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Asteras Tripolis at home only, Kifisia away only.
Asteras Tripolis vs Kifisia head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Asteras Tripolis 0 · draws 5 · Kifisia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Asteras Tripolis | 0-0 | Kifisia | Super League 1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Kifisia | 0-0 | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Kifisia | 0-0 | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Asteras Tripolis | 2-2 | Kifisia | Super League 1 |
| 2025-09-17 | Kifisia | 1-1 | Asteras Tripolis | Greece Cup |
Other Greek Cup - 4 fixtures
- Panserraikos vs Niki Volos — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Nestos Chrisoupolis v Kalamata — match page 2026-10-28
- Marko vs Olympiakos Piraeus — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Panathinaikos v Aris Thessalonikis — match page 2026-10-28
- Levadiakos v Kifisia — match page 2026-10-28
- Larisa vs OFI 2026-10-28
- PAOK vs AEK Athens FC — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Volos NFC vs Atromitos 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Asteras Tripolis, previous: Panathinaikos – Asteras Tripolis, 2026-10-18
- Kifisia, previous: Kifisia v Aris Thessalonikis analysis
- Kifisia, next: Levadiakos – Kifisia, 2026-10-28