Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata Prediction & Betting Tips 28/10/2026

Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata preview

In the Greece Cup fixture between Nestos Chrisoupolis and Kalamata, the 1X2 probabilities show Kalamata at 47%, while Nestos Chrisoupolis sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance. Kalamata's expected goals are 1.44 compared to Nestos Chrisoupolis's 0.97, indicating a stronger attacking performance.

However, the match could produce unexpected results. The probability for both teams to score is 49%, suggesting a close contest. Nestos Chrisoupolis's recent form is concerning, with four losses in their last five matches. Kalamata has been more stable, with only one loss in their last six games. This could impact the match outcome significantly.

Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Nestos Chrisoupolis	Draw	Kalamata
Model	24%	29%	47%
Market	—	—	—
Published	24%	29%	47%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.97.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Nestos Chrisoupolis and Kalamata expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.97Nestos Chrisoupolis

1.44Kalamata

Total expected goals: 2.40
Attack rating (Nestos Chrisoupolis / Kalamata): 0.76 / 1.11
Defence rating (Nestos Chrisoupolis / Kalamata): 1.03 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.3% 11.7% 9.3% 4.5% 2.2% 1 7.5% 13.8% 9.0% 4.3% 2.1% 2 4.2% 6.1% 4.4% 2.1% 1.0% 3 1.4% 2.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Nestos Chrisoupolis goals. Columns: Kalamata goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 43%

Over 3.5 22%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Nestos Chrisoupolis	24%	4.14
	Draw	29%	3.42
	Kalamata	47%	2.14
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	43%	2.32
	Under 2.5	57%	1.76
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.06
	No	51%	1.94
Double chance	1X (Nestos Chrisoupolis or draw)	53%	1.87
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or Kalamata)	76%	1.32
Handicap -1	Kalamata win by 2+	24%	4.25
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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