Marko vs Apollon Pontou preview
In the Super League 2 fixture, Marko has a 69% probability to win against Apollon Pontou, who stands at just 8%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 17% chance of occurring. Marko's expected goals are 1.85, while Apollon Pontou's are significantly lower at 0.49.
However, the prediction could be affected if Apollon Pontou finds a way to improve their recent form, which includes two losses in their last three matches. Additionally, with only a 34% chance for both teams to score, a lack of offensive output from Apollon Pontou could further solidify Marko's advantage.
Marko vs Apollon Pontou: model vs market
| Source | Marko | Draw | Apollon Pontou |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 22% | 8% |
| Market | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| Published | 69% | 21% | 10% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.50.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.33, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Marko and Apollon Pontou expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (Marko / Apollon Pontou)
- 1.40 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Marko / Apollon Pontou)
- 0.70 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Marko vs Apollon Pontou score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Marko goals. Columns: Apollon Pontou goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Marko vs Apollon Pontou goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Marko vs Apollon Pontou
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marko | 69% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.79 | |
| Apollon Pontou | 10% | 9.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.96 |
| No | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Marko or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Apollon Pontou) | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Marko win by 2+ | 43% | 2.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Marko and Apollon Pontou recent form
Marko
5W 1D 0L
Apollon Pontou
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Marko at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Apollon Pontou away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Marko at home only, Apollon Pontou away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Panionios vs Panserraikos — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Larisa vs Olympiakos Piraeus II 2026-11-01
- Niki Volos v Anagennisi Karditsas — match page 2026-11-01
- Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Panthrakikos — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- PAOK II v Zakynthos — match page 2026-11-01
- Ellas Syros vs Kallithea — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Asteras Tripolis II vs Pyrgos 1968 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Marko, previous: Marko – Olympiakos Piraeus, 2026-10-28
- Apollon Pontou, previous: Apollon Pontou vs Niki Volos: odds and pick