Lyon vs Nice preview
Lyon faces Nice with a 57% probability of winning, compared to Nice's 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Lyon's expected goals of 2.12 against Nice's 1.03. Lyon's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Nice has 2 wins in the same period.
Both teams to score has a 56% chance, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 59%. However, if Nice improves their attacking play, they could challenge Lyon's defense, potentially affecting the outcome. The head-to-head record favors Lyon, with 4 wins in the last 6 encounters against Nice.
Why this pick: Lyon vs Nice
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lyon 10, Nice 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lyon vs Nice: model vs market
| Source | Lyon | Draw | Nice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 22% | 19% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Edge | +3% | -2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lyon below the model: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lyon vs Nice odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lyon, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 1.65 | 1.67 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.03 | +0.03 |
| Nice | 5.00 | 4.92 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lyon and Nice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.14
- Attack rating (Lyon / Nice)
- 1.20 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Lyon / Nice)
- 0.90 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lyon vs Nice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lyon goals. Columns: Nice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lyon vs Nice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lyon vs Nice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.32 | |
| Nice | 19% | 5.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lyon or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Nice) | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lyon win by 2+ | 36% | 2.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Lyon and Nice recent form
Lyon
3W 2D 1L
Nice
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lyon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Nice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lyon at home only, Nice away only.
Lyon vs Nice head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Lyon 4 · draws 1 · Nice 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Lyon | 2-0 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Nice | 3-2 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-09 | Nice | 0-2 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-12-01 | Lyon | 4-1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-02-16 | Lyon | 1-0 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-08-27 | Nice | 0-0 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Le Mans vs Toulouse 2026-10-16
- Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain — match page 2026-10-17
- Lille vs Brest — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Estac Troyes vs Lens 2026-10-17
- Angers v Marseille — match page 2026-10-18
- Lorient vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Le Havre v Auxerre — match page 2026-10-18
- Paris FC vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Lyon, previous: Lyon – Crystal Palace, 2026-10-15
- Lyon, next: Hoffenheim – Lyon, 2026-10-22
- Nice, previous: Nice – Strasbourg, 2026-10-11