Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction & Betting Tips 14/10/2026

Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund preview

In the UEFA Champions League fixture between Bodo/Glimt and Borussia Dortmund, the 1X2 probabilities show Borussia Dortmund at 43% and Bodo/Glimt at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 81% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 79% chance for both teams to score.

Bodo/Glimt's recent form includes three wins and three losses, while Borussia Dortmund has won all six of their last matches. This strong form could influence the outcome, but if Bodo/Glimt performs above expectations, they might challenge Dortmund's dominance. The expected goals suggest Bodo/Glimt could score 2.40, while Dortmund is projected at 1.99.

Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Bodo/Glimt	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
Model	47%	21%	33%
Market	30%	24%	47%
Published	34%	23%	43%
Edge	+17%	-3%	-14%

Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.14, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Borussia Dortmund, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 2.05Now 2.04 -0.01

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Bodo/Glimt	3.13	3.17	+0.04
Draw	4.00	4.00	+0.00
Borussia Dortmund	2.05	2.04	-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bodo/Glimt and Borussia Dortmund expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.37Bodo/Glimt

1.99Borussia Dortmund

Total expected goals: 4.36
Attack rating (Bodo/Glimt / Borussia Dortmund): 1.68 / 1.49
Defence rating (Bodo/Glimt / Borussia Dortmund): 1.05 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.9% 1.9% 2.5% 1.7% 1.3% 1 2.4% 6.6% 6.0% 4.0% 3.1% 2 3.6% 7.1% 7.1% 4.7% 3.7% 3 2.8% 5.6% 5.6% 3.7% 2.9% 4+ 2.9% 5.8% 5.8% 3.9% 3.0%

Rows: Bodo/Glimt goals. Columns: Borussia Dortmund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 94%

Over 2.5 81%

Over 3.5 63%

Both teams to score: 79%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Bodo/Glimt	34%	2.94
	Draw	23%	4.36
	Borussia Dortmund	43%	2.32
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	81%	1.23
	Under 2.5	19%	5.27
Both teams to score	Yes	79%	1.27
	No	21%	4.74
Double chance	1X (Bodo/Glimt or draw)	57%	1.76
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Borussia Dortmund)	66%	1.52
Handicap -1	Borussia Dortmund win by 2+	18%	5.66
	Push (exactly one goal)	15%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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