Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC Prediction & Betting Tips 14/10/2026

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC preview

In the UEFA Champions League fixture between Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Shakhtar at 36% and AEK at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 11% of the time according to our model.

Shakhtar's expected goals are 1.19, slightly higher than AEK's 1.08. However, the potential for the match to end in a draw or for both teams to score, with probabilities of 28% and 47% respectively, could make the outcome unpredictable. Recent form also indicates Shakhtar's mixed results with 3 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, while AEK has been more consistent with 5 wins in their last 6 games.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Shakhtar Donetsk	Draw	AEK Athens FC
Model	37%	31%	32%
Market	36%	27%	37%
Published	36%	28%	35%
Edge	+1%	+4%	-5%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.82, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Shakhtar Donetsk, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 2.62Now 2.61 -0.01

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Shakhtar Donetsk	2.62	2.61	-0.01
Draw	3.50	3.50	-0.00
AEK Athens FC	2.55	2.58	+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19Shakhtar Donetsk

1.08AEK Athens FC

Total expected goals: 2.27
Attack rating (Shakhtar Donetsk / AEK Athens FC): 1.26 / 1.53
Defence rating (Shakhtar Donetsk / AEK Athens FC): 0.56 / 0.50

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.7% 9.9% 6.1% 2.2% 0.7% 1 11.0% 14.6% 7.2% 2.6% 0.9% 2 7.3% 7.9% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5% 3 2.9% 3.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Shakhtar Donetsk goals. Columns: AEK Athens FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 68%

Over 2.5 40%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 47%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Shakhtar Donetsk	36%	2.74
	Draw	28%	3.56
	AEK Athens FC	35%	2.82
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	40%	2.53
	Under 2.5	60%	1.65
Both teams to score	Yes	47%	2.12
	No	53%	1.90
Double chance	1X (Shakhtar Donetsk or draw)	65%	1.55
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or AEK Athens FC)	64%	1.57
Handicap -1	Shakhtar Donetsk win by 2+	16%	6.14
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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