AEK Athens FC vs OFI: model vs market
| Source | AEK Athens FC | Draw | OFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| Market | 76% | 15% | 8% |
| Published | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Edge | -16% | +9% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.26, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
AEK Athens FC vs OFI odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AEK Athens FC, 36 snapshots since 2026-09-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 1.20 | 1.22 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 6.15 | 6.05 | -0.10 |
| OFI | 13.00 | 11.12 | -1.88 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AEK Athens FC and OFI expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (AEK Athens FC / OFI)
- 1.82 / 1.30
- Defence rating (AEK Athens FC / OFI)
- 0.56 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AEK Athens FC vs OFI score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AEK Athens FC goals. Columns: OFI goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AEK Athens FC vs OFI goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AEK Athens FC vs OFI
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Athens FC | 72% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.67 | |
| OFI | 10% | 9.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AEK Athens FC or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or OFI) | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Athens FC win by 2+ | 36% | 2.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AEK Athens FC and OFI recent form
AEK Athens FC
5W 1D 0L
OFI
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AEK Athens FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
OFI away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: AEK Athens FC at home only, OFI away only.
AEK Athens FC vs OFI head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: AEK Athens FC 3 · draws 0 · OFI 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | AEK Athens FC | 0-1 | OFI | Greece Cup |
| 2025-12-21 | AEK Athens FC | 2-1 | OFI | Super League 1 |
| 2025-12-03 | AEK Athens FC | 2-0 | OFI | Greece Cup |
| 2025-11-09 | OFI | 0-1 | AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 |
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