Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Aris Thessalonikis	Draw	Volos NFC
Model	62%	21%	16%
Market	54%	26%	20%
Published	56%	25%	19%
Edge	+8%	-5%	-4%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.06.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices Aris Thessalonikis below the model: +8.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.77, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.

Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aris Thessalonikis, 36 snapshots since 2026-09-19.

Opened 1.73Now 1.73 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Aris Thessalonikis	1.73	1.73	+0.00
Draw	3.55	3.55	+0.00
Volos NFC	4.62	4.62	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.20Aris Thessalonikis

1.06Volos NFC

Total expected goals: 3.26
Attack rating (Aris Thessalonikis / Volos NFC): 1.00 / 1.01
Defence rating (Aris Thessalonikis / Volos NFC): 0.94 / 1.53

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 3.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 1 7.5% 9.9% 4.8% 1.7% 0.6% 2 9.3% 9.8% 5.2% 1.9% 0.6% 3 6.8% 7.2% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 6.2% 6.6% 3.5% 1.2% 0.4%

Rows: Aris Thessalonikis goals. Columns: Volos NFC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 63%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 59%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Aris Thessalonikis	56%	1.79
	Draw	25%	4.01
	Volos NFC	19%	5.22
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63%	1.58
	Under 2.5	37%	2.72
Both teams to score	Yes	59%	1.69
	No	41%	2.45
Double chance	1X (Aris Thessalonikis or draw)	81%	1.24
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Volos NFC)	44%	2.27
Handicap -1	Aris Thessalonikis win by 2+	40%	2.49
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC recent form

Aris Thessalonikis 2W 2D 2L

Volos NFC 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aris Thessalonikis at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-1-0
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 0.50
Clean sheets: 1 of 2

Volos NFC away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.50
Goals against / match: 2.50
Clean sheets: 0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Aris Thessalonikis at home only, Volos NFC away only.

Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 3 · draws 1 · Volos NFC 0.

75% 25% 0%

Aris ThessalonikisDrawsVolos NFC

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-13	Volos NFC	1-2	Aris Thessalonikis	Super League 1
2026-04-18	Aris Thessalonikis	3-2	Volos NFC	Super League 1
2026-02-14	Volos NFC	1-1	Aris Thessalonikis	Super League 1
2025-08-23	Aris Thessalonikis	2-0	Volos NFC	Super League 1

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Prediction snapshot Aris Thessalonikis to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Aris Thessalonikis