Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Olympiakos Piraeus	Draw	Panathinaikos
Model	30%	33%	37%
Market	44%	29%	28%
Published	40%	30%	30%
Edge	-14%	+4%	+10%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Olympiakos Piraeus, 36 snapshots since 2026-09-19.

Opened 2.02Now 2.10 +0.07

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Olympiakos Piraeus	2.02	2.10	+0.07
Draw	3.25	3.23	-0.02
Panathinaikos	3.60	3.34	-0.26

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.96Olympiakos Piraeus

1.11Panathinaikos

Total expected goals: 2.07
Attack rating (Olympiakos Piraeus / Panathinaikos): 1.07 / 1.41
Defence rating (Olympiakos Piraeus / Panathinaikos): 0.70 / 0.63

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.0% 12.6% 7.7% 2.8% 1.0% 1 10.8% 14.8% 7.4% 2.7% 1.0% 2 5.9% 6.5% 3.6% 1.3% 0.5% 3 1.9% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Olympiakos Piraeus goals. Columns: Panathinaikos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%

Over 1.5 63%

Over 2.5 34%

Over 3.5 16%

Both teams to score: 43%
No goals (0–0): 14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Olympiakos Piraeus	40%	2.48
	Draw	30%	3.37
	Panathinaikos	30%	3.33
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	34%	2.93
	Under 2.5	66%	1.52
Both teams to score	Yes	43%	2.34
	No	57%	1.74
Double chance	1X (Olympiakos Piraeus or draw)	70%	1.43
	12 (either side)	70%	1.42
	X2 (draw or Panathinaikos)	60%	1.68
Handicap -1	Olympiakos Piraeus win by 2+	11%	8.83
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos recent form

Olympiakos Piraeus 4W 1D 1L

Panathinaikos 6W 0D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Olympiakos Piraeus at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-1
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 0.50
Goals against / match: 0.50
Clean sheets: 1 of 2

Panathinaikos away

Record (W-D-L): 2-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 1.50
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 2 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus at home only, Panathinaikos away only.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Olympiakos Piraeus 2 · draws 1 · Panathinaikos 1.

50% 25% 25%

Olympiakos PiraeusDrawsPanathinaikos

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1-0	Panathinaikos	Super League 1
2026-04-19	Panathinaikos	0-2	Olympiakos Piraeus	Super League 1
2026-02-08	Olympiakos Piraeus	0-1	Panathinaikos	Super League 1
2025-09-21	Panathinaikos	1-1	Olympiakos Piraeus	Super League 1

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Prediction snapshot Olympiakos Piraeus to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus