Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos

Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos: model vs market

• Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.11.
• Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
• The market prices Asteras Tripolis below the model: +5.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Asteras Tripolis, 36 snapshots since 2026-09-19.

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

Total expected goals

2.59

Attack rating (Asteras Tripolis / Atromitos)

1.09 / 1.10

Defence rating (Asteras Tripolis / Atromitos)

0.89 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

Rows: Asteras Tripolis goals. Columns: Atromitos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Both teams to score

53%

No goals (0–0)

9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos recent form

Asteras Tripolis DWDDWL 2W 3D 1L

Atromitos LLDDWL 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

League matches this season before kick-off: Asteras Tripolis at home only, Atromitos away only.