PAOK vs Kalamata Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

PAOK vs Kalamata: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	PAOK	Draw	Kalamata
Model	51%	27%	23%
Market	75%	17%	8%
Published	69%	20%	11%
Edge	-24%	+9%	+15%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.04.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.

PAOK vs Kalamata odds movement

Median bookmaker price on PAOK, 36 snapshots since 2026-09-19.

Opened 1.24Now 1.24 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
PAOK	1.24	1.24	+0.00
Draw	5.35	5.35	+0.00
Kalamata	12.00	12.00	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

PAOK and Kalamata expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.66PAOK

1.04Kalamata

Total expected goals: 2.70
Attack rating (PAOK / Kalamata): 1.27 / 1.04
Defence rating (PAOK / Kalamata): 0.89 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

PAOK vs Kalamata score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.9% 5.8% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 1 10.0% 12.8% 6.0% 2.1% 0.7% 2 9.2% 9.6% 5.0% 1.7% 0.6% 3 5.1% 5.3% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 3.1% 3.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: PAOK goals. Columns: Kalamata goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

PAOK vs Kalamata goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 54%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for PAOK vs Kalamata

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	PAOK	69%	1.45
	Draw	20%	5.07
	Kalamata	11%	8.72
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.98
	Under 2.5	49%	2.02
Both teams to score	Yes	54%	1.87
	No	46%	2.15
Double chance	1X (PAOK or draw)	89%	1.13
	12 (either side)	80%	1.25
	X2 (draw or Kalamata)	31%	3.21
Handicap -1	PAOK win by 2+	28%	3.60
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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