Sandnes ULF vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction & Betting Tips 28/02/2027

Sandnes ULF vs Bodo/Glimt preview

In the NM Cupen fixture, Sandnes ULF faces Bodo/Glimt with a 5% chance of winning for Sandnes ULF and an 84% chance for Bodo/Glimt. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 0-3, which aligns with an expected goals figure of 0.78 for Sandnes ULF and 3.12 for Bodo/Glimt.

The model also indicates a 75% probability of Over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance for both teams to score. However, the recent form shows Sandnes ULF with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Bodo/Glimt has won 5 of their last 6. This disparity in form could lead to unexpected results.

Sandnes ULF vs Bodo/Glimt: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Sandnes ULF	Draw	Bodo/Glimt
Model	5%	11%	84%
Market	—	—	—
Published	5%	11%	84%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.97 vs 0.81.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Sandnes ULF and Bodo/Glimt expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.81Sandnes ULF

2.97Bodo/Glimt

Total expected goals: 3.78
Attack rating (Sandnes ULF / Bodo/Glimt): 0.79 / 0.94
Defence rating (Sandnes ULF / Bodo/Glimt): 1.01 / 0.72

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sandnes ULF vs Bodo/Glimt score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.8% 6.3% 10.1% 10.0% 15.4% 1 1.3% 6.1% 8.2% 8.1% 12.4% 2 0.7% 2.2% 3.3% 3.3% 5.0% 3 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 1.4% 4+ 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%

Rows: Sandnes ULF goals. Columns: Bodo/Glimt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sandnes ULF vs Bodo/Glimt goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 73%

Over 3.5 52%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sandnes ULF vs Bodo/Glimt

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Sandnes ULF	5%	19.90
	Draw	11%	8.84
	Bodo/Glimt	84%	1.20
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	75%	1.34
	Under 2.5	25%	3.95
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.98
	No	49%	2.02
Double chance	1X (Sandnes ULF or draw)	16%	6.12
	12 (either side)	89%	1.13
	X2 (draw or Bodo/Glimt)	95%	1.05
Handicap -1	Bodo/Glimt win by 2+	62%	1.62
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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