Updated

Premier League · Matchday 6

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest

· Selhurst Park, London· Referee Peter Bankes

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Crystal Palace to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Crystal PalaceDrawNottingham Forest

Why this pick: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Crystal Palace 10, Nottingham Forest 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Crystal PalaceNottingham Forest
1.36 xG per 90 1.77
1.26 npxG per 90 1.62
20.1 PPDA 14.3
5.6 Deep completions per 90 6.6
0.93 xPTS per 90 1.62

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCrystal PalaceDrawNottingham Forest
Model54%23%23%
Market34%28%37%
Published39%27%34%
Edge+5%-1%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.36.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Crystal Palace below our published probability: +5.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Crystal Palace, 57 snapshots since 2026-09-13.

Opened 2.50Now 2.80 +0.30
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Crystal Palace2.502.80+0.30
Draw3.203.35+0.15
Nottingham Forest2.902.55-0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.04Crystal Palace
1.36Nottingham Forest
Total expected goals
3.40
Attack rating (Crystal Palace / Nottingham Forest)
1.29 / 1.05
Defence rating (Crystal Palace / Nottingham Forest)
1.04 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.3% 2.8% 2.8% 1.3% 0.6% 1 5.2% 10.1% 6.0% 2.7% 1.2% 2 6.9% 9.4% 6.4% 2.9% 1.3% 3 5.0% 6.7% 4.6% 2.1% 0.9% 4+ 4.4% 5.9% 4.0% 1.8% 0.8%

Rows: Crystal Palace goals. Columns: Nottingham Forest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Crystal Palace39%2.56
Draw27%3.68
Nottingham Forest34%2.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.47
Under 2.532%3.11
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.50
No33%3.02
Double chance1X (Crystal Palace or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Nottingham Forest)61%1.64
Handicap -1Crystal Palace win by 2+34%2.97
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest recent form

Crystal Palace 3W 1D 2L
Nottingham Forest 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Crystal Palace at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
3.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Nottingham Forest away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Crystal Palace at home only, Nottingham Forest away only.

Injuries & availability

Crystal Palace absences

  • A. Disasi suspended
  • C. Riad knee injury
  • D. Henderson foot injury
  • J. Mateta hamstring injury
  • T. Tomiyasu calf injury

Nottingham Forest absences

  • Igor Jesus calf injury
  • N. Milenkovic knee injury
  • N. Savona knee injury
  • N. Williams illness

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Crystal Palace lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 44 W. Benítez
  2. 6 J. Canvot
  3. 8 J. Lerma
  4. 26 C. Richards
  5. 3 T. Mitchell
  6. 20 A. Wharton
  7. 23 Q. Timber
  8. 25 A. Khalaili
  9. 10 Yeremy Pino
  10. 18 D. Kamada
  11. 22 J. Strand Larsen

Bench: I. Sarr, E. Nketiah, D. McNeil, W. Hughes, H. Ahanor, C. Doucouré, E. Guessand, Óscar Mingueza, R. Matthews

Nottingham Forest lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 26 M. Sels
  2. 5 Murillo
  3. 2 O. Diomande
  4. 34 O. Aina
  5. 3 N. Williams
  6. 21 X. Schlager
  7. 24 J. McAtee
  8. 27 D. Muñoz
  9. 10 M. Gibbs-White
  10. 14 D. Ndoye
  11. 19 L. Delap

Bench: I. Sangaré, C. Hudson-Odoi, N. Domínguez, C. Wood, John, A. Kalimuendo, R. Yates, Jair, L. Netz

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Crystal Palace 0 · draws 8 · Nottingham Forest 2.

Crystal PalaceDrawsNottingham Forest
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-01Nottingham Forest1-1Crystal PalacePremier League
2025-08-24Crystal Palace1-1Nottingham ForestPremier League
2025-05-05Crystal Palace1-1Nottingham ForestPremier League
2024-10-21Nottingham Forest1-0Crystal PalacePremier League
2024-03-30Nottingham Forest1-1Crystal PalacePremier League
2023-10-07Crystal Palace0-0Nottingham ForestPremier League
2023-05-28Crystal Palace1-1Nottingham ForestPremier League
2022-11-12Nottingham Forest1-0Crystal PalacePremier League
2012-12-29Nottingham Forest2-2Crystal PalaceChampionship
2012-09-18Crystal Palace1-1Nottingham ForestChampionship

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match