Ipswich vs Fulham Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Ipswich vs Fulham preview

Ipswich faces Fulham with a 1X2 probability of 37% for both teams, while a draw stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Ipswich, with an 8% chance. Ipswich has an expected goals figure of 2.09, compared to Fulham's 1.92, suggesting a competitive match.

The market indicates a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 77%. However, Ipswich's recent form shows three losses in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Fulham's form is slightly better, with two wins in their last five. This variance in form could lead to unexpected results.

Why this pick: Ipswich vs Fulham

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Ipswich 10, Fulham 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

IpswichFulham

1.25 xG per 90 1.46

1.25 npxG per 90 1.37

14.5 PPDA 11.8

4.8 Deep completions per 90 9.3

1.25 xPTS per 90 1.17

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Ipswich vs Fulham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ipswich	Draw	Fulham
Model	44%	22%	34%
Market	35%	27%	38%
Published	37%	26%	37%
Edge	+9%	-5%	-4%

The market prices Ipswich below the model: +9.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.79, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Ipswich vs Fulham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ipswich, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-13.

Opened 2.90Now 2.70 -0.20

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Ipswich	2.90	2.70	-0.20
Draw	3.50	3.50	+0.00
Fulham	2.38	2.50	+0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ipswich and Fulham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.09Ipswich

1.92Fulham

Total expected goals: 4.01
Attack rating (Ipswich / Fulham): 1.14 / 1.24
Defence rating (Ipswich / Fulham): 1.26 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ipswich vs Fulham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.7% 2.1% 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% 1 2.6% 7.9% 6.6% 4.2% 3.1% 2 3.9% 7.6% 7.2% 4.6% 3.4% 3 2.9% 5.5% 5.3% 3.4% 2.5% 4+ 2.7% 5.1% 4.9% 3.1% 2.3%

Rows: Ipswich goals. Columns: Fulham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ipswich vs Fulham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 93%

Over 2.5 78%

Over 3.5 59%

Both teams to score: 77%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ipswich vs Fulham

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ipswich	37%	2.68
	Draw	26%	3.87
	Fulham	37%	2.72
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	78%	1.28
	Under 2.5	22%	4.52
Both teams to score	Yes	77%	1.30
	No	23%	4.33
Double chance	1X (Ipswich or draw)	63%	1.58
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Fulham)	63%	1.60
Handicap -1	Ipswich win by 2+	26%	3.78
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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