Updated

Premier League · Matchday 6

Ipswich vs Fulham

· Portman Road Stadium, Ipswich· Referee Lewis Smith

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Fulham to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
IpswichDrawFulham

Why this pick: Ipswich vs Fulham

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Ipswich 10, Fulham 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

IpswichFulham
1.25 xG per 90 1.46
1.25 npxG per 90 1.37
14.5 PPDA 11.8
4.8 Deep completions per 90 9.3
1.25 xPTS per 90 1.17

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Ipswich vs Fulham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceIpswichDrawFulham
Model44%22%34%
Market35%27%38%
Published37%26%37%
Edge+2%-1%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ipswich vs Fulham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Fulham, 55 snapshots since 2026-09-13.

Opened 2.38Now 2.50 +0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ipswich2.902.76-0.14
Draw3.503.50+0.00
Fulham2.382.50+0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ipswich and Fulham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.10Ipswich
1.92Fulham
Total expected goals
4.01
Attack rating (Ipswich / Fulham)
1.14 / 1.24
Defence rating (Ipswich / Fulham)
1.26 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ipswich vs Fulham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.7% 2.1% 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% 1 2.6% 7.9% 6.6% 4.2% 3.1% 2 3.9% 7.6% 7.2% 4.6% 3.4% 3 2.9% 5.5% 5.3% 3.4% 2.5% 4+ 2.7% 5.1% 4.9% 3.1% 2.3%

Rows: Ipswich goals. Columns: Fulham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ipswich vs Fulham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 78%
Over 3.5 59%
Both teams to score
77%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ipswich vs Fulham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ipswich37%2.70
Draw26%3.84
Fulham37%2.70
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.28
Under 2.522%4.52
Both teams to scoreYes77%1.30
No23%4.33
Double chance1X (Ipswich or draw)63%1.59
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Fulham)63%1.59
Handicap -1Fulham win by 2+18%5.51
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ipswich and Fulham recent form

Ipswich 2W 0D 4L
Fulham 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ipswich at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

Fulham away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ipswich at home only, Fulham away only.

Injuries & availability

Ipswich absences

  • I. Fatawu suspended

Fulham absences

  • A. Robinson ankle injury
  • K. Tete concussion
  • T. Cairney knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Ipswich lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 28 C. Walton
  2. 3 L. Davis
  3. 26 D. O'Shea
  4. 6 I. Diop
  5. 42 A. Ouattara
  6. 12 Florentino
  7. 23 S. Lukić
  8. 11 J. Philogene
  9. 10 J. Enciso
  10. 38 D. Maeda
  11. 19 Emersonn

Bench: D. Furlong, A. Matusiwa, S. Egeli, Z. Flemming, J. Greaves, E. Palacios, C. Akpom, K. Scherpen, J. Clarke

Fulham lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 B. Leno
  2. 30 R. Sessegnon
  3. 3 C. Bassey
  4. 22 D. Affengruber
  5. 2 K. Tete
  6. 19 S. Charles
  7. 16 S. Berge
  8. 17 A. Iwobi
  9. 24 Joshua King
  10. 14 Oscar Bobb
  11. 7 Gonzalo García

Bench: J. Andersen, César Palacios, Rodrigo Muniz, Kevin, H. Larsson, Manuel Ángel, T. Castagne, B. Lecomte, E. Smith Rowe

Ipswich vs Fulham head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Ipswich 1 · draws 3 · Fulham 6.

IpswichDrawsFulham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-01-05Fulham2-2IpswichPremier League
2024-08-31Ipswich1-1FulhamPremier League
2023-11-01Ipswich1-3FulhamLeague Cup
2020-09-16Ipswich0-1FulhamLeague Cup
2018-01-02Fulham4-1IpswichChampionship
2017-08-26Ipswich0-2FulhamChampionship
2017-04-08Fulham3-1IpswichChampionship
2016-12-26Ipswich0-2FulhamChampionship
2016-04-19Ipswich1-1FulhamChampionship
2015-12-15Fulham1-2IpswichChampionship

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match