Manchester United vs Tottenham preview
In the Premier League fixture between Manchester United and Tottenham, the model gives Manchester United a 57% chance to win, making them the favorites. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. The data shows a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 71%.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Manchester United's last six matches include two wins, while Tottenham has only one win in their last six. Head-to-head results favor Tottenham with three wins in the last six encounters. This context could lead to a different result than expected.
Why this pick: Manchester United vs Tottenham
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Manchester United 10, Tottenham 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Manchester United vs Tottenham: model vs market
| Source | Manchester United | Draw | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| Market | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Published | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Edge | +6% | -3% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.43.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Manchester United below the model: +5.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Manchester United vs Tottenham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Manchester United, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 1.67 | 1.70 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.10 | -0.20 |
| Tottenham | 4.75 | 4.45 | -0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Manchester United and Tottenham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.89
- Attack rating (Manchester United / Tottenham)
- 1.45 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Manchester United / Tottenham)
- 1.06 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Manchester United vs Tottenham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Manchester United goals. Columns: Tottenham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Manchester United vs Tottenham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Manchester United vs Tottenham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester United | 57% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Tottenham | 21% | 4.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Manchester United or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Tottenham) | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester United win by 2+ | 42% | 2.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Manchester United and Tottenham recent form
Manchester United
2W 2D 2L
Tottenham
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Manchester United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Tottenham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Manchester United at home only, Tottenham away only.
Manchester United vs Tottenham head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Manchester United 1 · draws 2 · Tottenham 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Manchester United | 2-0 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2025-11-08 | Tottenham | 2-2 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2025-02-16 | Tottenham | 1-0 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2024-09-29 | Manchester United | 0-3 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2024-01-14 | Manchester United | 2-2 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2023-08-19 | Tottenham | 2-0 | Manchester United | Premier League |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Arsenal vs Leeds — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth 2026-10-10
- Ipswich v Fulham — match page 2026-10-10
- Aston Villa vs Brentford — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Sunderland vs Brighton 2026-10-10
- Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Hull City vs Everton 2026-10-11
- Liverpool v Manchester City — match page 2026-10-11