Updated

Premier League · Matchday 6

Manchester United vs Tottenham

· Old Trafford, Manchester· Referee Stuart Attwell

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Manchester United to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Manchester UnitedDrawTottenham

Why this pick: Manchester United vs Tottenham

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Manchester United 10, Tottenham 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Manchester UnitedTottenham
2.22 xG per 90 1.33
2.12 npxG per 90 1.33
12.7 PPDA 8.2
10.8 Deep completions per 90 5.8
1.79 xPTS per 90 1.45

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Manchester United vs Tottenham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceManchester UnitedDrawTottenham
Model61%20%19%
Market55%23%22%
Published57%22%21%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.42.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Manchester United vs Tottenham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Manchester United, 56 snapshots since 2026-09-13.

Opened 1.67Now 1.73 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Manchester United1.671.73+0.06
Draw4.304.15-0.15
Tottenham4.754.40-0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Manchester United and Tottenham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.46Manchester United
1.42Tottenham
Total expected goals
3.88
Attack rating (Manchester United / Tottenham)
1.44 / 1.09
Defence rating (Manchester United / Tottenham)
1.05 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Manchester United vs Tottenham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.8% 1.6% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4% 1 3.7% 7.7% 4.8% 2.3% 1.1% 2 6.1% 8.6% 6.2% 2.9% 1.4% 3 5.2% 7.4% 5.3% 2.5% 1.2% 4+ 6.3% 8.9% 6.4% 3.0% 1.5%

Rows: Manchester United goals. Columns: Tottenham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Manchester United vs Tottenham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 57%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Manchester United vs Tottenham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Manchester United57%1.76
Draw22%4.50
Tottenham21%4.77
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.31
Under 2.524%4.22
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.40
No29%3.47
Double chance1X (Manchester United or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or Tottenham)43%2.32
Handicap -1Manchester United win by 2+42%2.39
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Manchester United and Tottenham recent form

Manchester United 2W 2D 2L
Tottenham 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Manchester United at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Tottenham away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Manchester United at home only, Tottenham away only.

Injuries & availability

Manchester United absences

  • A. Diallo injury
  • B. Sesko leg injury
  • K. Darlow injury
  • M. Ugarte knee injury
  • M. de Ligt back injury
  • N. Mazraoui injury
  • P. Dorgu hamstring injury
  • T. Heaton abdominal strain

Tottenham absences

  • D. Kulusevski knee injury
  • M. Mudryk ankle injury
  • P. Porro muscle injury
  • W. Odobert knee injury
  • X. Simons knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Manchester United lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 S. Lammens
  2. 23 L. Shaw
  3. 6 Lisandro Martínez
  4. 5 H. Maguire
  5. 15 L. Yoro
  6. 37 K. Mainoo
  7. 18 Y. Tielemans
  8. 19 B. Mbeumo
  9. 8 Bruno Fernandes
  10. 16 A. Diallo
  11. 10 Matheus Cunha

Bench: Diogo Dalot, M. Mount, M. Rashford, J. Zirkzee, K. Darlow, Andrey Santos, C. Baleba, A. Heaven, S. Lacey

Tottenham lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 A. Kinský
  2. 13 D. Udogie
  3. 5 M. Senesi
  4. 6 J. van Hecke
  5. 14 A. Gray
  6. 16 S. Tonali
  7. 15 L. Bergvall
  8. 20 M. Kudus
  9. 8 C. Gallagher
  10. 17 Sávio
  11. 19 D. Solanke

Bench: T. Adarabioyo, J. Maddison, M. Tel, Mateus Fernandes, Omar Marmoush, R. Bentancur, B. Davies, M. van de Ven, M. Dúbravka

Manchester United vs Tottenham head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Manchester United 2 · draws 3 · Tottenham 5.

Manchester UnitedDrawsTottenham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-07Manchester United2-0TottenhamPremier League
2025-11-08Tottenham2-2Manchester UnitedPremier League
2025-05-21Tottenham1-0Manchester UnitedUEFA Europa League
2025-02-16Tottenham1-0Manchester UnitedPremier League
2024-12-19Tottenham4-3Manchester UnitedLeague Cup
2024-09-29Manchester United0-3TottenhamPremier League
2024-01-14Manchester United2-2TottenhamPremier League
2023-08-19Tottenham2-0Manchester UnitedPremier League
2023-04-27Tottenham2-2Manchester UnitedPremier League
2022-10-19Manchester United2-0TottenhamPremier League

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match