Hull City vs Everton Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Hull City vs Everton preview

Hull City hosts Everton in a Premier League match where the 1X2 probabilities show Everton at 42%, compared to Hull City's 29%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score is at 49%, indicating a close contest where either side could find the net.

Hull City has an expected goals figure of 1.17, slightly higher than Everton's 1.09. However, Hull's recent form shows two losses in their last three matches, while Everton has won three of their last six. This recent performance could influence the outcome, making it possible for the match to deviate from the predicted scoreline.

Why this pick: Hull City vs Everton

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hull City 6, Everton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Hull CityEverton

1.15 xG per 90 1.53

1.15 npxG per 90 1.53

17.3 PPDA 15.1

3.2 Deep completions per 90 5.8

1.09 xPTS per 90 1.30

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Hull City vs Everton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Hull City	Draw	Everton
Model	37%	32%	31%
Market	26%	28%	46%
Published	29%	29%	42%
Edge	+11%	+4%	-15%

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Hull City vs Everton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Everton, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-14.

Opened 2.05Now 2.07 +0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Hull City	3.80	3.60	-0.20
Draw	3.30	3.35	+0.05
Everton	2.05	2.07	+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hull City and Everton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Hull City

1.09Everton

Total expected goals: 2.27
Attack rating (Hull City / Everton): 0.83 / 1.17
Defence rating (Hull City / Everton): 0.76 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hull City vs Everton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.7% 8.7% 5.8% 2.1% 0.7% 1 10.1% 15.1% 7.2% 2.6% 0.9% 2 7.4% 8.1% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 3 3.1% 3.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 1.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Hull City goals. Columns: Everton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hull City vs Everton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 69%

Over 2.5 41%

Over 3.5 21%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hull City vs Everton

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Hull City	29%	3.45
	Draw	29%	3.43
	Everton	42%	2.39
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	41%	2.43
	Under 2.5	59%	1.70
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.04
	No	51%	1.96
Double chance	1X (Hull City or draw)	58%	1.72
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or Everton)	71%	1.41
Handicap -1	Everton win by 2+	13%	7.80
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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