Hull City vs Everton Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Why this pick: Hull City vs Everton

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hull City 6, Everton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Hull CityEverton

1.15 xG per 90 1.53

1.15 npxG per 90 1.53

17.3 PPDA 15.1

3.2 Deep completions per 90 5.8

1.09 xPTS per 90 1.30

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Hull City vs Everton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Hull City	Draw	Everton
Model	38%	32%	30%
Market	27%	28%	45%
Published	29%	29%	42%
Edge	+3%	+1%	-4%

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Hull City vs Everton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Everton, 55 snapshots since 2026-09-14.

Opened 2.05Now 2.11 +0.06

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Hull City	3.80	3.56	-0.23
Draw	3.30	3.40	+0.10
Everton	2.05	2.11	+0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hull City and Everton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Hull City

1.09Everton

Total expected goals: 2.26
Attack rating (Hull City / Everton): 0.83 / 1.16
Defence rating (Hull City / Everton): 0.76 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hull City vs Everton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.8% 8.7% 5.8% 2.1% 0.7% 1 10.1% 15.1% 7.2% 2.6% 0.9% 2 7.5% 8.1% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 3 3.1% 3.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 1.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Hull City goals. Columns: Everton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hull City vs Everton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 69%

Over 2.5 41%

Over 3.5 21%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hull City vs Everton

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Hull City	29%	3.40
	Draw	29%	3.44
	Everton	42%	2.41
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	41%	2.44
	Under 2.5	59%	1.69
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.04
	No	51%	1.96
Double chance	1X (Hull City or draw)	58%	1.71
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or Everton)	71%	1.42
Handicap -1	Everton win by 2+	13%	7.84
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Hull City and Everton recent form

Hull City 1W 3D 2L

Everton 3W 3D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Hull City at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-1-0
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 2 of 2

They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.

Everton away

Record (W-D-L): 0-2-0
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.50
Goals against / match: 0.50
Clean sheets: 1 of 2

They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Hull City at home only, Everton away only.

Injuries & availability

Hull City absences

B. Norton-Cuffy muscle injury
C. Hughes groin injury
D. Gyabi groin injury
E. Matazo knee injury
E. Stroud illness
H. Morita calf injury
I. Ansah back injury
J. Butland arm injury
M. Targett ankle injury
T. Iroegbunam groin injury

Everton absences

C. Norgaard groin injury
M. Rohl injury
V. Mykolenko injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Hull City lineup · 5-4-1

19 K. Tzolakis
3 R. Giles
32 N. Mendy
15 J. Egan
6 S. Ajayi
2 L. Coyle
7 S. Thomas
27 R. Slater
25 M. Crooks
11 J. Gelhardt
9 O. McBurnie

Bench: H. Morita, M. Belloumi, D. Phillips, P. McNair, B. Norton-Cuffy, E. Stroud, L. Herrington, T. Iroegbunam, R. Vaz

Everton lineup · 4-2-3-1

1 J. Pickford
4 J. Branthwaite
5 M. Keane
6 J. Tarkowski
2 A. Maitland-Niles
45 H. Armstrong
37 J. Garner
10 J. Grealish
8 K. Dewsbury-Hall
22 B. Johnson
11 T. Barry

Bench: M. Travers, J. O'Brien, Tyrique George, T. Dibling, C. Nørgaard, C. Alcaraz, H. Hackney, M. Röhl, B. Graham

Hull City vs Everton head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Hull City 1 · draws 2 · Everton 4.

14% 29% 57%

Hull CityDrawsEverton

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2022-01-08	Hull City	2-3	Everton	FA Cup
2017-03-18	Everton	4-0	Hull City	Premier League
2016-12-30	Hull City	2-2	Everton	Premier League
2015-01-01	Hull City	2-0	Everton	Premier League
2014-12-03	Everton	1-1	Hull City	Premier League
2014-05-11	Hull City	0-2	Everton	Premier League
2013-10-19	Everton	2-1	Hull City	Premier League

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Arsenal vs Leeds — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Chelsea vs Bournemouth 2026-10-10
Ipswich v Fulham — match page 2026-10-10
Aston Villa vs Brentford — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Sunderland vs Brighton 2026-10-10
Manchester United v Tottenham — match page 2026-10-10
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-11
Liverpool v Manchester City — match page 2026-10-11

Before and after this match

Hull City, next: Fulham v Hull City analysis
Everton, next: Everton – Chelsea, 2026-10-17