Sunderland vs Brighton Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Sunderland vs Brighton preview

The fixture between Sunderland and Brighton sees Brighton favored with a 39% chance to win compared to Sunderland's 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the strong probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 73%.

Sunderland's recent form shows a mix of results with two wins in their last five matches, while Brighton has won four of their last five. The head-to-head record favors Brighton, who have won once and drawn once in their last two meetings. These factors suggest that while Sunderland has potential, Brighton's recent performance and head-to-head advantage could influence the outcome.

Why this pick: Sunderland vs Brighton

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sunderland 10, Brighton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SunderlandBrighton

1.87 xG per 90 2.21

1.68 npxG per 90 2.13

10.6 PPDA 6.0

8.1 Deep completions per 90 8.4

1.67 xPTS per 90 1.68

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Sunderland vs Brighton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Sunderland	Draw	Brighton
Model	40%	24%	36%
Market	32%	28%	40%
Published	34%	27%	39%
Edge	+8%	-4%	-4%

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.49, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Sunderland vs Brighton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Brighton, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-13.

Opened 2.30Now 2.37 +0.07

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Sunderland	3.00	2.93	-0.07
Draw	3.40	3.40	+0.00
Brighton	2.30	2.37	+0.07

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sunderland and Brighton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84Sunderland

1.82Brighton

Total expected goals: 3.66
Attack rating (Sunderland / Brighton): 1.18 / 1.49
Defence rating (Sunderland / Brighton): 0.99 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sunderland vs Brighton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 3.0% 3.9% 2.4% 1.6% 1 3.3% 9.5% 7.5% 4.6% 3.1% 2 4.4% 8.0% 7.3% 4.4% 3.0% 3 2.8% 5.1% 4.7% 2.8% 1.9% 4+ 2.1% 3.9% 3.5% 2.1% 1.5%

Rows: Sunderland goals. Columns: Brighton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sunderland vs Brighton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 72%

Over 3.5 52%

Both teams to score: 73%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sunderland vs Brighton

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Sunderland	34%	2.92
	Draw	27%	3.73
	Brighton	39%	2.57
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	72%	1.38
	Under 2.5	28%	3.61
Both teams to score	Yes	73%	1.37
	No	27%	3.68
Double chance	1X (Sunderland or draw)	61%	1.64
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Brighton)	66%	1.52
Handicap -1	Brighton win by 2+	19%	5.17
	Push (exactly one goal)	16%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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