Aston Villa vs Brentford preview
Aston Villa hosts Brentford with a 38% chance of winning compared to Brentford's 37%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 7% of the time. Both teams have shown strong attacking potential, with Aston Villa expected to score 2.12 goals and Brentford 1.94. The market indicates a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams to score at 77%.
Aston Villa's recent form shows two wins, a loss, and a draw in their last six matches, while Brentford has three wins and three draws. The head-to-head record favors Aston Villa slightly, with 3 wins to Brentford's 2 in the last 7 encounters. A draw at 26% is a possibility that could disrupt the expected outcomes.
Why this pick: Aston Villa vs Brentford
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Aston Villa 10, Brentford 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Aston Villa vs Brentford: model vs market
| Source | Aston Villa | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 22% | 34% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 38% |
| Published | 38% | 26% | 37% |
| Edge | +9% | -5% | -4% |
- The market prices Aston Villa below the model: +8.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.73, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Aston Villa vs Brentford odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aston Villa, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 2.80 | 2.63 | -0.17 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Brentford | 2.40 | 2.50 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aston Villa and Brentford expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.06
- Attack rating (Aston Villa / Brentford)
- 1.25 / 1.41
- Defence rating (Aston Villa / Brentford)
- 1.11 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aston Villa vs Brentford score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aston Villa goals. Columns: Brentford goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aston Villa vs Brentford goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aston Villa vs Brentford
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 38% | 2.64 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Brentford | 37% | 2.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.29 |
| No | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aston Villa or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Brentford) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aston Villa win by 2+ | 27% | 3.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aston Villa and Brentford recent form
Aston Villa
3W 1D 2L
Brentford
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aston Villa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Brentford away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Aston Villa at home only, Brentford away only.
Aston Villa vs Brentford head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Aston Villa 3 · draws 2 · Brentford 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Aston Villa | 0-1 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2025-09-16 | Brentford | 1-1 | Aston Villa | League Cup |
| 2025-08-23 | Brentford | 1-0 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2025-03-08 | Brentford | 0-1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2024-12-04 | Aston Villa | 3-1 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2024-04-06 | Aston Villa | 3-3 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2023-12-17 | Brentford | 1-2 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
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- Ipswich v Fulham — match page 2026-10-10
- Sunderland vs Brighton 2026-10-10
- Manchester United v Tottenham — match page 2026-10-10
- Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Hull City vs Everton 2026-10-11
- Liverpool v Manchester City — match page 2026-10-11