Updated

Premier League · Matchday 6

Liverpool vs Manchester City

· Anfield, Liverpool· Referee Chris Kavanagh

Full time0 – 3

Alin prediction was Manchester City to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LiverpoolDrawManchester City

Why this pick: Liverpool vs Manchester City

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Liverpool 10, Manchester City 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LiverpoolManchester City
1.68 xG per 90 1.96
1.58 npxG per 90 1.96
9.8 PPDA 11.1
6.5 Deep completions per 90 11.0
1.53 xPTS per 90 1.73

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Liverpool vs Manchester City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLiverpoolDrawManchester City
Model32%24%43%
Market32%26%42%
Published32%25%43%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.58.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Liverpool vs Manchester City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Manchester City, 55 snapshots since 2026-09-14.

Opened 2.15Now 2.26 +0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Liverpool3.002.98-0.02
Draw3.663.71+0.05
Manchester City2.152.26+0.11

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Liverpool and Manchester City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.58Liverpool
1.94Manchester City
Total expected goals
3.51
Attack rating (Liverpool / Manchester City)
1.19 / 1.56
Defence rating (Liverpool / Manchester City)
1.01 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Liverpool vs Manchester City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 4.0% 5.1% 3.3% 2.5% 1 3.2% 10.1% 8.5% 5.5% 4.1% 2 3.8% 7.3% 7.1% 4.6% 3.4% 3 2.1% 4.0% 3.9% 2.5% 1.9% 4+ 1.3% 2.4% 2.4% 1.5% 1.1%

Rows: Liverpool goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Liverpool vs Manchester City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 48%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Liverpool vs Manchester City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Liverpool32%3.12
Draw25%3.94
Manchester City43%2.35
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.43
Under 2.530%3.30
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.42
No29%3.41
Double chance1X (Liverpool or draw)57%1.74
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Manchester City)68%1.47
Handicap -1Manchester City win by 2+25%4.03
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Liverpool and Manchester City recent form

Liverpool 4W 2D 0L
Manchester City 6W 0D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Liverpool at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.

Manchester City away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Liverpool at home only, Manchester City away only.

Injuries & availability

Liverpool absences

  • A. Isak thigh injury
  • C. Bradley knee injury
  • C. Gakpo ankle injury
  • F. Chiesa back injury
  • G. Leoni knee injury
  • H. Ekitike achilles tendon injury

Manchester City absences

  • N. O'Reilly injury
  • P. Foden suspended

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Liverpool lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Alisson Becker
  2. 6 M. Kerkez
  3. 4 V. van Dijk
  4. 5 J. Jacquet
  5. 33 R. Araújo
  6. 10 A. Mac Allister
  7. 38 R. Gravenberch
  8. 23 Víctor Muñoz
  9. 7 F. Wirtz
  10. 29 B. Barcola
  11. 67 L. Koumas

Bench: J. Gomez, W. Endo, F. Chiesa, K. Tsimikas, G. Mamardashvili, J. Frimpong, T. Nyoni, J. McConnell, R. Ngumoha

Manchester City lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 G. Donnarumma
  2. 33 N. O'Reilly
  3. 6 M. Guéhi
  4. 3 Rúben Dias
  5. 27 Matheus Nunes
  6. 17 E. Fernández
  7. 5 E. Anderson
  8. 7 I. Ndiaye
  9. 10 R. Cherki
  10. 42 A. Semenyo
  11. 9 E. Haaland

Bench: M. Kovačić, J. Doku, Vitor Nunes, J. Gvardiol, G. Rulli, A. Bouaddi, Allan, A. Khusanov, R. Lewis

Liverpool vs Manchester City head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Liverpool 3 · draws 2 · Manchester City 5.

LiverpoolDrawsManchester City
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-04Manchester City4-0LiverpoolEngland FA Cup
2026-02-08Liverpool1-2Manchester CityPremier League
2025-11-09Manchester City3-0LiverpoolPremier League
2025-02-23Manchester City0-2LiverpoolPremier League
2024-12-01Liverpool2-0Manchester CityPremier League
2024-03-10Liverpool1-1Manchester CityPremier League
2023-11-25Manchester City1-1LiverpoolPremier League
2023-04-01Manchester City4-1LiverpoolPremier League
2022-12-22Manchester City3-2LiverpoolLeague Cup
2022-10-16Liverpool1-0Manchester CityPremier League

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match