Liverpool vs Manchester City preview
Liverpool hosts Manchester City in a Premier League match where the model gives Manchester City a 39% chance to win, slightly higher than Liverpool's 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability. Both teams to score stands at 71%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 70%, indicating a strong likelihood of an active match.
Liverpool's recent form shows they have won three of their last five games, while Manchester City has won all six of their recent matches. The head-to-head record in the last seven encounters shows Liverpool winning twice, City winning three times, and two draws. This context could influence the outcome, as both teams have shown strong attacking capabilities.
Why this pick: Liverpool vs Manchester City
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Liverpool 10, Manchester City 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: model vs market
| Source | Liverpool | Draw | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Market | 36% | 26% | 37% |
| Published | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Edge | -4% | -2% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.58.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Manchester City below the model: +6.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.67, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Liverpool vs Manchester City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Manchester City, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 3.00 | 2.57 | -0.43 |
| Draw | 3.66 | 3.60 | -0.06 |
| Manchester City | 2.15 | 2.50 | +0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Liverpool and Manchester City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (Liverpool / Manchester City)
- 1.20 / 1.56
- Defence rating (Liverpool / Manchester City)
- 1.01 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Liverpool vs Manchester City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Liverpool goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Liverpool vs Manchester City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Liverpool vs Manchester City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 35% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Manchester City | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Liverpool or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Manchester City) | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester City win by 2+ | 25% | 3.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Liverpool and Manchester City recent form
Liverpool
4W 2D 0L
Manchester City
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Liverpool at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Manchester City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Liverpool at home only, Manchester City away only.
Liverpool vs Manchester City head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Liverpool 2 · draws 2 · Manchester City 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Manchester City | 4-0 | Liverpool | England FA Cup |
| 2026-02-08 | Liverpool | 1-2 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2025-11-09 | Manchester City | 3-0 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2025-02-23 | Manchester City | 0-2 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2024-12-01 | Liverpool | 2-0 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2024-03-10 | Liverpool | 1-1 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2023-11-25 | Manchester City | 1-1 | Liverpool | Premier League |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth 2026-10-10
- Ipswich v Fulham — match page 2026-10-10
- Aston Villa vs Brentford — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Sunderland vs Brighton 2026-10-10
- Manchester United v Tottenham — match page 2026-10-10
- Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Hull City vs Everton 2026-10-11
- Coventry vs Newcastle United — team news & stats 2026-10-12