Why this pick: Arsenal vs Leeds
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Arsenal 10, Leeds 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Arsenal vs Leeds: model vs market
| Source | Arsenal | Draw | Leeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Market | 67% | 20% | 12% |
| Published | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.48 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Arsenal vs Leeds odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 55 snapshots since 2026-09-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.29 | 1.42 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 4.65 | -0.85 |
| Leeds | 12.00 | 7.85 | -4.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arsenal and Leeds expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.71
- Attack rating (Arsenal / Leeds)
- 1.34 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Arsenal / Leeds)
- 0.83 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arsenal vs Leeds score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Leeds goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arsenal vs Leeds goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arsenal vs Leeds
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 67% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Leeds | 13% | 7.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arsenal or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Leeds) | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win by 2+ | 46% | 2.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Arsenal and Leeds recent form
Arsenal
5W 0D 1L
Leeds
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arsenal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Leeds away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arsenal at home only, Leeds away only.
Injuries & availability
Arsenal absences
- C. Tzolis hamstring injury
- E. Konsa muscle injury
-
K. Havertz
muscle injury
-
W. Saliba
back injury
Leeds absences
- D. James back injury
-
H. Wilson
muscle injury
- J. Bahoya ankle injury
-
J. Rodon
muscle injury
-
M. Joseph
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Arsenal lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 David Raya
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 6 Gabriel Magalhães
- 15 E. Konsa
- 4 B. White
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
- 41 D. Rice
- 20 N. Madueke
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 7 B. Saka
- 29 K. Havertz
Bench: P. Hincapié, E. Eze, J. Timber, Kepa, V. Gyökeres, Mikel Merino, Martín Zubimendi, Bruno Guimarães, M. Dowman
Leeds lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 J. Trafford
- 5 T. Muharemović
- 30 N. Elvedi
- 24 J. Justin
- 3 G. Gudmundsson
- 22 A. Tanaka
- 4 E. Ampadu
- 2 J. Bogle
- 19 N. Okafor
- 18 A. Stach
- 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
Bench: S. Longstaff, H. Wilson, B. Aaronson, L. Nmecha, J. Bijol, M. Zetterer, J. Bahoya, M. Bard, I. Gruev
Arsenal vs Leeds head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Arsenal 9 · draws 1 · Leeds 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Leeds | 0-4 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2025-08-23 | Arsenal | 5-0 | Leeds | Premier League |
| 2023-04-01 | Arsenal | 4-1 | Leeds | Premier League |
| 2022-10-16 | Leeds | 0-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2022-05-08 | Arsenal | 2-1 | Leeds | Premier League |
| 2021-12-18 | Leeds | 1-4 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2021-10-26 | Arsenal | 2-0 | Leeds | League Cup |
| 2021-02-14 | Arsenal | 4-2 | Leeds | Premier League |
| 2020-11-22 | Leeds | 0-0 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2020-01-06 | Arsenal | 1-0 | Leeds | FA Cup |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth 2026-10-10
- Ipswich v Fulham — match page 2026-10-10
- Aston Villa vs Brentford — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Sunderland vs Brighton 2026-10-10
- Manchester United v Tottenham — match page 2026-10-10
- Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Hull City vs Everton 2026-10-11
- Liverpool v Manchester City — match page 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Arsenal, next: Arsenal – Lille, 2026-10-13
- Leeds, next: Leeds vs Manchester United prediction