Chelsea vs Bournemouth preview
Chelsea hosts Bournemouth with a 50% probability of winning, making them the favorites in this Premier League fixture. The expected goals show Chelsea at 1.78 and Bournemouth at 2.01, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Chelsea, with a 7% chance.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 74%, indicating a strong likelihood of an open game. However, Chelsea's recent form shows inconsistency with two wins in their last six matches, while Bournemouth has drawn three of their last six. This could impact the outcome if Chelsea struggles to convert their chances against a resilient Bournemouth side.
Why this pick: Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Chelsea 10, Bournemouth 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth: model vs market
| Source | Chelsea | Draw | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 23% | 41% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Published | 50% | 23% | 26% |
| Edge | -20% | 0% | +20% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chelsea, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1.83 | 1.72 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.05 | -0.05 |
| Bournemouth | 3.80 | 4.40 | +0.60 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chelsea and Bournemouth expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.79
- Attack rating (Chelsea / Bournemouth)
- 1.25 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Chelsea / Bournemouth)
- 1.25 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Bournemouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chelsea vs Bournemouth
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Bournemouth | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.34 |
| No | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chelsea or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Bournemouth) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chelsea win by 2+ | 19% | 5.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chelsea and Bournemouth recent form
Chelsea
3W 1D 2L
Bournemouth
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chelsea at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Bournemouth away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Chelsea at home only, Bournemouth away only.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Chelsea 2 · draws 4 · Bournemouth 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | Chelsea | 2-2 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2025-12-06 | Bournemouth | 0-0 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2025-01-14 | Chelsea | 2-2 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2024-09-14 | Bournemouth | 0-1 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2024-05-19 | Chelsea | 2-1 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2023-09-17 | Bournemouth | 0-0 | Chelsea | Premier League |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
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- Aston Villa vs Brentford — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Sunderland vs Brighton 2026-10-10
- Manchester United v Tottenham — match page 2026-10-10
- Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Hull City vs Everton 2026-10-11
- Liverpool v Manchester City — match page 2026-10-11