Why this pick: Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Chelsea 10, Bournemouth 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth: model vs market
| Source | Chelsea | Draw | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 23% | 41% |
| Market | 54% | 23% | 22% |
| Published | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Edge | -5% | 0% | +5% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chelsea, 55 snapshots since 2026-09-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1.83 | 1.75 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.05 | -0.05 |
| Bournemouth | 3.80 | 4.27 | +0.47 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chelsea and Bournemouth expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.79
- Attack rating (Chelsea / Bournemouth)
- 1.25 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Chelsea / Bournemouth)
- 1.25 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Bournemouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chelsea vs Bournemouth
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 50% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Bournemouth | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.34 |
| No | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chelsea or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Bournemouth) | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chelsea win by 2+ | 19% | 5.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Chelsea and Bournemouth recent form
Chelsea
3W 1D 2L
Bournemouth
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chelsea at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Bournemouth away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chelsea at home only, Bournemouth away only.
Injuries & availability
Chelsea absences
-
E. Emegha
muscle injury
- J. Gittens ankle injury
Bournemouth absences
-
A. Adli
calf injury
- A. Scott thigh injury
- D. Brooks injury
-
E. J. Kroupi
foot injury
-
J. Araujo
thigh injury
- J. Kluivert muscle injury
-
V. Milosavljevic
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Chelsea lineup · 3-4-3
- 1 E. Martínez
- 6 L. Colwill
- 5 M. Lacroix
- 34 Joshua Kofi Acheampong
- 29 Pep Chavarría
- 25 M. Caicedo
- 14 J. Henderson
- 7 Pedro Neto
- 17 M. Rogers
- 9 João Pedro
- 10 C. Palmer
Bench: M. Palestra, W. Fofana, D. Welbeck, J. Hato, Geovany Tcherno Quenda, M. Gusto, M. Penders, Estêvão, R. Lavia
Bournemouth lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 3 A. Truffert
- 14 António Silva
- 5 J. Hill
- 15 A. Smith
- 10 R. Christie
- 12 T. Adams
- 7 D. Brooks
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 37 Rayan
- 9 Evanilson
Bench: L. Cook, J. Soler, B. Doak, B. Diakité, M. Di Gregorio, Juanlu Sánchez, A. Tóth, D. Jebbison, Á. Rodríguez
Chelsea vs Bournemouth head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Chelsea 5 · draws 4 · Bournemouth 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | Chelsea | 2-2 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2025-12-06 | Bournemouth | 0-0 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2025-01-14 | Chelsea | 2-2 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2024-09-14 | Bournemouth | 0-1 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2024-05-19 | Chelsea | 2-1 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2023-09-17 | Bournemouth | 0-0 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2023-05-06 | Bournemouth | 1-3 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2022-12-27 | Chelsea | 2-0 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2021-07-27 | Bournemouth | 1-2 | Chelsea | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Arsenal vs Leeds — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Ipswich v Fulham — match page 2026-10-10
- Aston Villa vs Brentford — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Sunderland vs Brighton 2026-10-10
- Manchester United v Tottenham — match page 2026-10-10
- Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Hull City vs Everton 2026-10-11
- Liverpool v Manchester City — match page 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Chelsea, next: Everton – Chelsea, 2026-10-17
- Bournemouth, next: Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction