Everton vs Chelsea preview
In the Premier League fixture between Everton and Chelsea, the 1X2 probabilities show Everton at 38% and Chelsea also at 38%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, with a 5% chance. Everton's expected goals stand at 2.39, while Chelsea's is 1.42, indicating a strong attacking potential for the home side.
The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 71%. However, recent form could impact the outcome; Everton has drawn three of their last six matches, while Chelsea has won three of their last six. This inconsistency may affect the final result and the expected scoring dynamics.
Why this pick: Everton vs Chelsea
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Everton 10, Chelsea 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Everton vs Chelsea: model vs market
| Source | Everton | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 20% | 19% |
| Market | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Published | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Edge | +30% | -5% | -25% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.23, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Everton vs Chelsea odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chelsea, 50 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 3.10 | 3.14 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.70 | +0.10 |
| Chelsea | 2.20 | 2.15 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Everton and Chelsea expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.81
- Attack rating (Everton / Chelsea)
- 1.24 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Everton / Chelsea)
- 0.94 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Everton vs Chelsea score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Everton goals. Columns: Chelsea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Everton vs Chelsea goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Everton vs Chelsea
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Everton | 38% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Chelsea | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Everton or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Chelsea) | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chelsea win by 2+ | 9% | 11.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 11% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Everton and Chelsea recent form
Everton
2W 4D 0L
Chelsea
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Everton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Chelsea away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Everton at home only, Chelsea away only.
Everton vs Chelsea head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Everton 3 · draws 3 · Chelsea 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Everton | 3-0 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2025-12-13 | Chelsea | 2-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2025-04-26 | Chelsea | 1-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2024-12-22 | Everton | 0-0 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2024-04-15 | Chelsea | 6-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2023-12-10 | Everton | 2-0 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2023-03-18 | Chelsea | 2-2 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2022-08-06 | Everton | 0-1 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2022-05-01 | Everton | 1-0 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2021-12-16 | Chelsea | 1-1 | Everton | Premier League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Fulham v Hull City — match page 2026-10-17
- Manchester City vs Ipswich — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Brentford vs Liverpool 2026-10-17
- Newcastle United v Aston Villa — match page 2026-10-17
- Bournemouth vs Sunderland — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Brighton vs Crystal Palace 2026-10-18
- Leeds v Manchester United — match page 2026-10-18
- Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Everton, previous: Hull City v Everton analysis
- Chelsea, previous: Chelsea vs Bournemouth prediction
- Chelsea, next: Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction