Brentford vs Liverpool preview
In the Premier League fixture between Brentford and Liverpool, the 1X2 probabilities show Brentford at 39% and Liverpool at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Brentford, with an 8% probability. The match could see Over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 75%.
Brentford's expected goals stand at 2.20, while Liverpool's are at 1.70. Recent form shows Brentford with 3 draws and 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Liverpool has 4 wins and 2 draws in the same period. The head-to-head record favors Liverpool, who have won 4 of the last 6 encounters. This context could influence the match outcome.
Why this pick: Brentford vs Liverpool
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brentford 10, Liverpool 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Brentford vs Liverpool: model vs market
| Source | Brentford | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| Market | 39% | 26% | 36% |
| Published | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Edge | +13% | -3% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.58.
- The market prices Brentford below the model: +13.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.61, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Brentford vs Liverpool odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Brentford, 50 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 2.61 | 2.45 | -0.16 |
| Draw | 3.77 | 3.67 | -0.10 |
| Liverpool | 2.42 | 2.67 | +0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brentford and Liverpool expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.73
- Attack rating (Brentford / Liverpool)
- 1.37 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Brentford / Liverpool)
- 1.14 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brentford vs Liverpool score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brentford goals. Columns: Liverpool goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brentford vs Liverpool goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brentford vs Liverpool
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brentford | 42% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Liverpool | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.38 |
| No | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brentford or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Liverpool) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brentford win by 2+ | 32% | 3.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Brentford and Liverpool recent form
Brentford
2W 4D 0L
Liverpool
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brentford at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Liverpool away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Brentford at home only, Liverpool away only.
Brentford vs Liverpool head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Brentford 2 · draws 2 · Liverpool 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Liverpool | 1-1 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2025-10-25 | Brentford | 3-2 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2025-01-18 | Brentford | 0-2 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2024-08-25 | Liverpool | 2-0 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2024-02-17 | Brentford | 1-4 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2023-11-12 | Liverpool | 3-0 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2023-05-06 | Liverpool | 1-0 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2023-01-02 | Brentford | 3-1 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2022-01-16 | Liverpool | 3-0 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2021-09-25 | Brentford | 3-3 | Liverpool | Premier League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Everton vs Chelsea 2026-10-17
- Fulham v Hull City — match page 2026-10-17
- Manchester City vs Ipswich — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Newcastle United v Aston Villa — match page 2026-10-17
- Bournemouth vs Sunderland — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Brighton vs Crystal Palace 2026-10-18
- Leeds v Manchester United — match page 2026-10-18
- Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Brentford, previous: Aston Villa v Brentford analysis
- Brentford, next: Sunderland v Brentford analysis
- Liverpool, previous: Lask Linz – Liverpool, 2026-10-14
- Liverpool, next: Liverpool vs Villarreal: odds and pick