Coventry vs Newcastle United Prediction & Betting Tips 12/10/2026

Coventry vs Newcastle United preview

Coventry hosts Newcastle United with a 40% chance for an away win, compared to Coventry's 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, reflecting Newcastle's stronger recent form, where they have won four of their last six matches. However, if Coventry can convert their expected goals of 1.77 into actual goals, they could challenge Newcastle's defense.

The market suggests a 62% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 64% probability for both teams to score. This indicates that both teams are likely to find the net, but if Coventry fails to capitalize on their scoring opportunities, the match could lean towards a lower-scoring affair. The confidence grade is B, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.

Why this pick: Coventry vs Newcastle United

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Coventry 6, Newcastle United 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

CoventryNewcastle United

1.00 xG per 90 1.41

1.00 npxG per 90 1.33

21.9 PPDA 12.2

3.6 Deep completions per 90 7.4

0.91 xPTS per 90 1.17

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Coventry vs Newcastle United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Coventry	Draw	Newcastle United
Model	48%	26%	27%
Market	29%	26%	45%
Published	34%	26%	40%
Edge	+19%	-1%	-18%

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Coventry vs Newcastle United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Newcastle United, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 2.05Now 2.10 +0.05

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Coventry	3.38	3.25	-0.13
Draw	3.60	3.60	+0.00
Newcastle United	2.05	2.10	+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Coventry and Newcastle United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.77Coventry

1.36Newcastle United

Total expected goals: 3.13
Attack rating (Coventry / Newcastle United): 1.02 / 0.99
Defence rating (Coventry / Newcastle United): 1.11 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Coventry vs Newcastle United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.5% 3.9% 3.7% 1.7% 0.8% 1 5.9% 11.6% 6.9% 3.1% 1.4% 2 6.9% 9.4% 6.4% 2.9% 1.3% 3 4.3% 5.8% 4.0% 1.8% 0.8% 4+ 3.0% 4.1% 2.8% 1.3% 0.6%

Rows: Coventry goals. Columns: Newcastle United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Coventry vs Newcastle United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 62%

Over 3.5 40%

Both teams to score: 64%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Coventry vs Newcastle United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Coventry	34%	2.97
	Draw	26%	3.84
	Newcastle United	40%	2.48
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	62%	1.60
	Under 2.5	38%	2.66
Both teams to score	Yes	64%	1.56
	No	36%	2.80
Double chance	1X (Coventry or draw)	60%	1.68
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Newcastle United)	66%	1.51
Handicap -1	Newcastle United win by 2+	12%	8.15
	Push (exactly one goal)	14%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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