Updated

Premier League · Matchday 6

Coventry vs Newcastle United

· Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry· Referee John Brooks

Full time4 – 1

Alin prediction was Newcastle United to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CoventryDrawNewcastle United

Why this pick: Coventry vs Newcastle United

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Coventry 6, Newcastle United 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

CoventryNewcastle United
1.00 xG per 90 1.41
1.00 npxG per 90 1.33
21.9 PPDA 12.2
3.6 Deep completions per 90 7.4
0.91 xPTS per 90 1.17

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Coventry vs Newcastle United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCoventryDrawNewcastle United
Model48%26%27%
Market29%26%44%
Published34%26%40%
Edge+5%0%-4%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Coventry vs Newcastle United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Newcastle United, 50 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 2.05Now 2.15 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Coventry3.383.27-0.10
Draw3.603.60+0.00
Newcastle United2.052.15+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Coventry and Newcastle United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.77Coventry
1.36Newcastle United
Total expected goals
3.12
Attack rating (Coventry / Newcastle United)
1.01 / 0.99
Defence rating (Coventry / Newcastle United)
1.11 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Coventry vs Newcastle United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 3.9% 3.7% 1.7% 0.8% 1 5.9% 11.7% 6.9% 3.1% 1.4% 2 6.9% 9.4% 6.4% 2.9% 1.3% 3 4.3% 5.8% 3.9% 1.8% 0.8% 4+ 3.0% 4.1% 2.8% 1.3% 0.6%

Rows: Coventry goals. Columns: Newcastle United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Coventry vs Newcastle United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Coventry vs Newcastle United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Coventry34%2.96
Draw26%3.80
Newcastle United40%2.50
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.61
Under 2.538%2.65
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.56
No36%2.79
Double chance1X (Coventry or draw)60%1.67
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Newcastle United)66%1.51
Handicap -1Newcastle United win by 2+12%8.16
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Coventry and Newcastle United recent form

Coventry 2W 0D 4L
Newcastle United 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Coventry at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.

Newcastle United away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Coventry at home only, Newcastle United away only.

Injuries & availability

Coventry absences

  • A. Amenda calf injury
  • H. Wright muscle injury
  • J. Eccles injury
  • J. Latibeaudiere injury
  • K. Kesler-Hayden muscle injury
  • L. Woolfenden knee injury
  • T. Awoniyi suspended

Newcastle United absences

  • A. Elanga knee injury
  • D. Burn ankle injury
  • E. Jaouen muscle injury
  • J. Ramsey injury
  • Joelinton thigh injury
  • V. Livramento injury
  • W. Osula foot injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Coventry lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 19 C. Rushworth
  2. 3 J. Dasilva
  3. 4 B. Thomas
  4. 2 E. Pinnock
  5. 27 M. van Ewijk
  6. 6 M. Grimes
  7. 8 Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi
  8. 10 E. Mason-Clark
  9. 5 J. Rudoni
  10. 23 B. Thomas-Asante
  11. 49 S. Cherif

Bench: T. Sakamoto, E. Simms, S. Mfuni, F. Onyeka, J. Latibeaudiere, D. Bentley, V. Torp, Y. Gboho, G. Hamer

Newcastle United lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 21 L. Horníček
  2. 3 L. Hall
  3. 4 S. Botman
  4. 12 M. Thiaw
  5. 67 L. Miley
  6. 28 J. Willock
  7. 6 Nico González
  8. 11 H. Barnes
  9. 9 Y. Wissa
  10. 23 J. Murphy
  11. 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo

Bench: N. Pope, F. Schär, Joelinton, A. Bamba, W. Osula, Sean Steur, B. Touré, D. Burn, A. Dedić

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match