Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka preview
Shakhtar Donetsk faces Kolos Kovalivka with a 66% probability of winning compared to 12% for Kolos. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Shakhtar's expected goals of 1.96, while Kolos has an expected goals figure of just 0.71.
However, recent form shows Shakhtar with a mixed record of W-W-W-D-W-L, while Kolos has struggled, recording W-L-D-D-L-L. The model suggests a 50% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score. Despite Shakhtar's strong position, Kolos's past head-to-head success, with 1 win and 1 draw against Shakhtar, could influence the outcome.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka: model vs market
| Source | Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Kolos Kovalivka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Shakhtar Donetsk / Kolos Kovalivka)
- 1.51 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Shakhtar Donetsk / Kolos Kovalivka)
- 0.63 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shakhtar Donetsk goals. Columns: Kolos Kovalivka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Kolos Kovalivka | 14% | 7.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.02 |
| No | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shakhtar Donetsk or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Kolos Kovalivka) | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shakhtar Donetsk win by 2+ | 39% | 2.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka recent form
Shakhtar Donetsk
4W 1D 1L
Kolos Kovalivka
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shakhtar Donetsk at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Kolos Kovalivka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shakhtar Donetsk at home only, Kolos Kovalivka away only.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 0 · draws 1 · Kolos Kovalivka 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 0-1 | Kolos Kovalivka | Ukraine Premier League |
| 2025-12-06 | Kolos Kovalivka | 0-0 | Shakhtar Donetsk | Ukraine Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets 2026-10-17
- Kudrivka vs Bukovyna 2026-10-17
- Kryvbas KR v LNZ Cherkasy — match page 2026-10-18
- Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Karpaty v Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — match page 2026-10-18
- FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Shakhtar Donetsk, previous: Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC: odds and pick
- Shakhtar Donetsk, next: Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk: odds and pick
- Kolos Kovalivka, previous: Kolos Kovalivka v Epitsentr Dunayivtsi analysis