Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi preview
In the Ukraine Premier League fixture, Karpaty faces Epitsentr Dunayivtsi with 57% probability for a Karpaty win and a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 15%. The expected goals show Karpaty at 1.60 and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 0.72, indicating a stronger attacking presence from Karpaty.
However, the recent form could complicate matters. Karpaty has two wins in their last six matches, while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi has only one win in their last six. Both teams to score stands at 42%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 41%, suggesting a low-scoring match is more likely. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi: model vs market
| Source | Karpaty | Draw | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 27% | 16% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Published | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Edge | -1% | +4% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.61, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.
Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Karpaty, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karpaty | 1.61 | 1.59 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
| Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.33
- Attack rating (Karpaty / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi)
- 1.14 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Karpaty / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi)
- 0.73 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Karpaty goals. Columns: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Karpaty | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.08 | |
| Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 18% | 5.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.36 |
| No | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Karpaty or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Karpaty win by 2+ | 32% | 3.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi recent form
Karpaty
2W 2D 2L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Karpaty at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Karpaty at home only, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away only.
Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Karpaty 0 · draws 1 · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 0-0 | Karpaty | Ukraine Premier League |
| 2025-10-19 | Karpaty | 1-3 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Ukraine Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne 2026-10-16
- Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets 2026-10-17
- Kudrivka vs Bukovyna 2026-10-17
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kryvbas KR v LNZ Cherkasy — match page 2026-10-18
- Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Karpaty, previous: Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty prediction
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, previous: Kolos Kovalivka v Epitsentr Dunayivtsi analysis