Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty: model vs market
| Source | Dynamo Kyiv | Draw | Karpaty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 32% | 42% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 24% |
| Edge | -31% | +7% | +24% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.
Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dynamo Kyiv, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Kyiv | 1.61 | 1.62 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.93 | 3.75 | -0.18 |
| Karpaty | 4.83 | 5.00 | +0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dynamo Kyiv and Karpaty expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.16
- Attack rating (Dynamo Kyiv / Karpaty)
- 1.01 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Dynamo Kyiv / Karpaty)
- 0.81 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dynamo Kyiv goals. Columns: Karpaty goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dynamo Kyiv | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Karpaty | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dynamo Kyiv or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Karpaty) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dynamo Kyiv win by 2+ | 9% | 10.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dynamo Kyiv and Karpaty recent form
Dynamo Kyiv
3W 1D 2L
Karpaty
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dynamo Kyiv at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Karpaty away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dynamo Kyiv at home only, Karpaty away only.
Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Dynamo Kyiv 0 · draws 1 · Karpaty 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Dynamo Kyiv | 0-1 | Karpaty | Ukraine Premier League |
| 2025-09-27 | Karpaty | 3-3 | Dynamo Kyiv | Ukraine Premier League |
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