Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv preview
In the upcoming match between Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv, the key number is FC Kharkiv's 59% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 17% chance. Chornomorets has struggled recently, recording two draws and three losses in their last six matches, while FC Kharkiv has been more consistent with four wins in their last six.
While the model suggests a low chance of Over 2.5 goals at 33% and both teams to score at 37%, unexpected performances from Chornomorets could alter the outcome. If they manage to convert their chances better than expected, it could lead to a different result.
Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv: model vs market
| Source | Chornomorets | Draw | FC Kharkiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 30% | 53% |
| Market | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| Published | 15% | 25% | 59% |
| Edge | +2% | +7% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Kharkiv, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chornomorets | 7.20 | 6.12 | -1.08 |
| Draw | 4.43 | 3.94 | -0.49 |
| FC Kharkiv | 1.46 | 1.50 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.03
- Attack rating (Chornomorets / FC Kharkiv)
- 0.80 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Chornomorets / FC Kharkiv)
- 0.86 / 0.63
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chornomorets goals. Columns: FC Kharkiv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chornomorets | 15% | 6.46 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| FC Kharkiv | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.68 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chornomorets or draw) | 41% | 2.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Kharkiv) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Kharkiv win by 2+ | 27% | 3.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv recent form
Chornomorets
1W 2D 3L
FC Kharkiv
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chornomorets at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
FC Kharkiv away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chornomorets at home only, FC Kharkiv away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR 2026-10-10
- LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka 2026-10-11
- Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty 2026-10-11
- Bukovyna v Polessya — match page 2026-10-11
- Livyi Bereh v Zorya Luhansk — match page 2026-10-12