Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction & Betting Tips 12/10/2026

Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Livyi Bereh	Draw	Zorya Luhansk
Model	58%	30%	12%
Market	31%	28%	41%
Published	38%	28%	34%
Edge	+27%	+2%	-29%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.48.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Livyi Bereh below the model: +27.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.07, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.

Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Livyi Bereh, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-01.

Opened 3.04Now 2.95 -0.09

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Livyi Bereh	3.04	2.95	-0.09
Draw	3.52	3.30	-0.22
Zorya Luhansk	2.30	2.22	-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.37Livyi Bereh

0.48Zorya Luhansk

Total expected goals: 1.85
Attack rating (Livyi Bereh / Zorya Luhansk): 0.97 / 0.89
Defence rating (Livyi Bereh / Zorya Luhansk): 0.45 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.8% 6.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 1 20.6% 11.4% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 2 14.8% 7.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 3 6.7% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 3.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Livyi Bereh goals. Columns: Zorya Luhansk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%

Over 1.5 56%

Over 2.5 28%

Over 3.5 12%

Both teams to score: 29%
No goals (0–0): 17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Livyi Bereh	38%	2.64
	Draw	28%	3.53
	Zorya Luhansk	34%	2.95
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	28%	3.55
	Under 2.5	72%	1.39
Both teams to score	Yes	29%	3.41
	No	71%	1.42
Double chance	1X (Livyi Bereh or draw)	66%	1.51
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Zorya Luhansk)	62%	1.61
Handicap -1	Livyi Bereh win by 2+	30%	3.37
	Push (exactly one goal)	28%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk recent form

Livyi Bereh 2W 4D 0L

Zorya Luhansk 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Livyi Bereh at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-2-0
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 0.67
Goals against / match: 0.33
Clean sheets: 2 of 3

They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

Zorya Luhansk away

Record (W-D-L): 1-2-0
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 1.33
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Livyi Bereh at home only, Zorya Luhansk away only.

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Prediction snapshot Livyi Bereh to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Livyi Bereh