Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv preview
In the fixture between Polessya and Dynamo Kyiv, the 1X2 probabilities show Polessya at 39%, while Dynamo Kyiv is also at 30% for a draw. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. Polessya has an expected goals value of 1.28, compared to Dynamo Kyiv's 1.09, indicating a competitive match.
However, factors that could change the outcome include Polessya's recent form, which shows 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Dynamo Kyiv has 4 wins in the same period. The model suggests a 42% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score, highlighting the potential for a more dynamic match than the predicted scoreline suggests.
Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv: model vs market
| Source | Polessya | Draw | Dynamo Kyiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 30% | 30% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Published | 38% | 28% | 33% |
| Edge | +1% | +3% | -4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.46, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.
Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Polessya, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polessya | 2.46 | 2.45 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.35 | +0.00 |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 2.65 | 2.70 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Polessya and Dynamo Kyiv expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.37
- Attack rating (Polessya / Dynamo Kyiv)
- 1.34 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Polessya / Dynamo Kyiv)
- 0.91 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Polessya goals. Columns: Dynamo Kyiv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polessya | 38% | 2.61 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Polessya or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Dynamo Kyiv) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Polessya win by 2+ | 18% | 5.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Polessya and Dynamo Kyiv recent form
Polessya
3W 1D 2L
Dynamo Kyiv
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Polessya at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dynamo Kyiv away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Polessya at home only, Dynamo Kyiv away only.
Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Polessya 0 · draws 0 · Dynamo Kyiv 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Polessya | 1-2 | Dynamo Kyiv | Ukraine Premier League |
| 2025-08-31 | Dynamo Kyiv | 4-1 | Polessya | Ukraine Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne 2026-10-16
- Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets 2026-10-17
- Kudrivka vs Bukovyna 2026-10-17
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kryvbas KR v LNZ Cherkasy — match page 2026-10-18
- Karpaty v Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — match page 2026-10-18
- FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Polessya, previous: Bukovyna vs Polessya prediction
- Dynamo Kyiv, previous: Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty prediction