Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets: model vs market
| Source | Zorya Luhansk | Draw | Chornomorets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 33% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 31% | 33% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.04
- Attack rating (Zorya Luhansk / Chornomorets)
- 0.88 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Zorya Luhansk / Chornomorets)
- 1.08 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zorya Luhansk goals. Columns: Chornomorets goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zorya Luhansk | 31% | 3.18 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Chornomorets | 35% | 2.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.37 |
| No | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zorya Luhansk or draw) | 65% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| X2 (draw or Chornomorets) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chornomorets win by 2+ | 14% | 6.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets recent form
Zorya Luhansk
1W 2D 3L
Chornomorets
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zorya Luhansk at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chornomorets away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Zorya Luhansk at home only, Chornomorets away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Zorya Luhansk, previous: Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk: odds and pick
- Chornomorets, previous: Chornomorets – FC Kharkiv, 2026-10-10