Lecce vs Bologna preview
In the Serie A fixture between Lecce and Bologna, the model gives Bologna a 49% chance to win, compared to Lecce's 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of Lecce at 1.30 and Bologna at 1.96.
Both teams have struggled recently, with Lecce recording two wins in their last six matches and Bologna failing to secure a win in their last five. The stats show a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 64%. However, if Lecce improves their form or if Bologna's struggles continue, the outcome could differ from the model's prediction.
Why this pick: Lecce vs Bologna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lecce 10, Bologna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lecce vs Bologna: model vs market
| Source | Lecce | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 26% | 51% |
| Market | 23% | 28% | 49% |
| Published | 23% | 28% | 49% |
| Edge | 0% | -2% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.30.
- The market prices Bologna below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lecce vs Bologna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bologna, 40 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 3.92 | 4.00 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.30 | +0.04 |
| Bologna | 2.08 | 1.91 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lecce and Bologna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.26
- Attack rating (Lecce / Bologna)
- 0.92 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Lecce / Bologna)
- 1.68 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lecce vs Bologna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lecce goals. Columns: Bologna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lecce vs Bologna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lecce vs Bologna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lecce | 23% | 4.31 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Bologna | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lecce or draw) | 51% | 1.97 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Bologna) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bologna win by 2+ | 31% | 3.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lecce and Bologna recent form
Lecce
2W 0D 4L
Bologna
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lecce at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Bologna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Lecce at home only, Bologna away only.
Lecce vs Bologna head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Lecce 0 · draws 3 · Bologna 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Bologna | 2-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2025-09-28 | Lecce | 2-2 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2025-02-09 | Lecce | 0-0 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2024-11-02 | Bologna | 1-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2024-02-11 | Bologna | 4-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2023-12-03 | Lecce | 1-1 | Bologna | Serie A |
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