Updated

Serie A · Matchday 6

Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913

· San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan· Referee Kevin Bonacina

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Inter to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
InterDrawParma Calcio 1913

Why this pick: Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Inter 10, Parma Calcio 1913 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

InterParma Calcio 1913
2.64 xG per 90 0.82
2.64 npxG per 90 0.82
12.5 PPDA 14.8
12.9 Deep completions per 90 4.1
2.21 xPTS per 90 0.63

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceInterDrawParma Calcio 1913
Model76%16%9%
Market84%11%5%
Published82%12%6%
Edge-2%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.00 vs 1.03.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Inter, 47 snapshots since 2026-09-17.

Opened 1.13Now 1.13 -0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Inter1.131.13-0.00
Draw8.939.00+0.07
Parma Calcio 191317.5019.00+1.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Inter and Parma Calcio 1913 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.00Inter
1.03Parma Calcio 1913
Total expected goals
4.02
Attack rating (Inter / Parma Calcio 1913)
1.73 / 0.77
Defence rating (Inter / Parma Calcio 1913)
1.13 / 1.33

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1 4.3% 6.6% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 2 8.0% 8.3% 4.2% 1.4% 0.5% 3 8.0% 8.2% 4.2% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 12.6% 12.9% 6.6% 2.3% 0.7%

Rows: Inter goals. Columns: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 77%
Over 3.5 57%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Inter82%1.22
Draw12%8.46
Parma Calcio 19136%16.85
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.31
Under 2.524%4.25
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.61
No38%2.64
Double chance1X (Inter or draw)94%1.06
12 (either side)88%1.13
X2 (draw or Parma Calcio 1913)18%5.63
Handicap -1Inter win by 2+58%1.73
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Inter and Parma Calcio 1913 recent form

Inter 4W 1D 1L
Parma Calcio 1913 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Inter at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Parma Calcio 1913 away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Inter at home only, Parma Calcio 1913 away only.

Injuries & availability

Inter absences

  • C. Jones thigh injury
  • J. Stones injury

Parma Calcio 1913 absences

  • A. Ndiaye knock
  • H. Nicolussi Caviglia groin injury
  • L. Valenti coach's decision
  • P. Almqvist calf injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Inter lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 Josep Martínez
  2. 30 Carlos Augusto
  3. 31 Y. Bisseck
  4. 28 B. Pavard
  5. 32 F. Dimarco
  6. 22 H. Mkhitaryan
  7. 20 H. Çalhanoğlu
  8. 8 P. Sučić
  9. 17 A. Diouf
  10. 9 M. Thuram
  11. 94 F. Esposito

Bench: A. Stanković, P. Zieliński, Lautaro Martínez, Luis Henrique, R. Di Gennaro, A. Bonny, N. Barella, M. Akanji, L. Bovio, I. Provedel, A. Bastoni, D. Spence

Parma Calcio 1913 lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 40 E. Corvi
  2. 37 M. Troilo
  3. 34 Diego Carlos
  4. 15 E. Del Prato
  5. 14 E. Valeri
  6. 4 V. Sierro
  7. 16 M. Keita
  8. 29 F. Carboni
  9. 80 G. Fabbian
  10. 19 E. Touré
  11. 23 N. Elphege

Bench: Ousmane Diallo, B. Cremaschi, D. Romero, Adrián Bernabé, M. Frigan, S. Ghidotti, S. Britschgi, G. Daffara, C. Ordoñez, Abdou Konate, D. Drobnic, S. Lontani

Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Inter 7 · draws 3 · Parma Calcio 1913 0.

InterDrawsParma Calcio 1913
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-03Inter2-0Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2026-01-07Parma Calcio 19130-2InterSerie A
2025-04-05Parma Calcio 19132-2InterSerie A
2024-12-06Inter3-1Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2023-01-10Inter2-1Parma Calcio 1913Coppa Italia
2021-08-08Parma Calcio 19130-2InterFriendlies Clubs
2021-03-04Parma Calcio 19131-2InterSerie A
2020-10-31Inter2-2Parma Calcio 1913Serie A
2020-06-28Parma Calcio 19131-2InterSerie A
2019-10-26Inter2-2Parma Calcio 1913Serie A

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match