Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 preview
Inter faces Parma Calcio 1913 with a strong probability of winning at 81%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which suggests a competitive match. However, if Parma manages to score, it could affect the outcome, especially given that both teams to score is at 62%.
Inter's expected goals stand at 2.99, while Parma's is only 1.03, indicating a significant attacking advantage for Inter. The market shows a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 76%. Recent form also favors Inter, who have won four of their last six matches, compared to Parma's poor run of one win in their last six.
Why this pick: Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Inter 10, Parma Calcio 1913 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913: model vs market
| Source | Inter | Draw | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76% | 16% | 9% |
| Market | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| Published | 81% | 12% | 6% |
| Edge | -7% | +4% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.99 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.16, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inter, 40 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 1.13 | 1.14 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 8.93 | 8.50 | -0.43 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 17.50 | 16.50 | -1.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Inter and Parma Calcio 1913 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.02
- Attack rating (Inter / Parma Calcio 1913)
- 1.73 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Inter / Parma Calcio 1913)
- 1.13 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inter goals. Columns: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter | 81% | 1.23 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.17 | |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 6% | 15.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inter or draw) | 94% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| X2 (draw or Parma Calcio 1913) | 19% | 5.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win by 2+ | 58% | 1.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Inter and Parma Calcio 1913 recent form
Inter
4W 1D 1L
Parma Calcio 1913
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inter at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
Parma Calcio 1913 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Inter at home only, Parma Calcio 1913 away only.
Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Inter 3 · draws 1 · Parma Calcio 1913 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Inter | 2-0 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2026-01-07 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 0-2 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2025-04-05 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 2-2 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2024-12-06 | Inter | 3-1 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
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