Why this pick: Cagliari vs Juventus
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Cagliari 10, Juventus 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Cagliari vs Juventus: model vs market
| Source | Cagliari | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10% | 22% | 68% |
| Market | 14% | 24% | 62% |
| Published | 13% | 23% | 63% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.80.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Cagliari vs Juventus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 50 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 6.60 | 6.72 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 4.26 | 4.00 | -0.26 |
| Juventus | 1.50 | 1.54 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cagliari and Juventus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Cagliari / Juventus)
- 1.05 / 1.60
- Defence rating (Cagliari / Juventus)
- 1.18 / 0.58
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cagliari vs Juventus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cagliari goals. Columns: Juventus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cagliari vs Juventus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cagliari vs Juventus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cagliari | 13% | 7.55 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Juventus | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| No | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cagliari or draw) | 37% | 2.73 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Juventus) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win by 2+ | 46% | 2.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cagliari and Juventus recent form
Cagliari
4W 0D 2L
Juventus
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cagliari at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Juventus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cagliari at home only, Juventus away only.
Injuries & availability
Cagliari absences
-
M. Felici
knee injury
-
R. Idrissi
knee injury
-
Y. Trepy
injury
Juventus absences
-
A. Milik
inactive
-
J. Boga
muscle injury
-
J. Ekhator
muscle injury
-
K. Grabara
knee injury
-
K. Thuram
knee injury
-
K. Yildiz
foot injury
-
M. Locatelli
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Cagliari lineup · 4-3-2-1
- 1 E. Caprile
- 33 A. Obert
- 15 J. Rodríguez
- 26 Y. Mina
- 2 Zé Pedro
- 4 A. Romano
- 6 H. Winks
- 8 M. Adopo
- 70 D. Maldini
- 79 Y. Massolin
- 31 P. Mendy
Bench: Kevin Carlos, J. Fazzini, A. Sherri, A. Deiola, M'Bala Nzola, R. Ciervo, R. Gagliardini, R. Kofler, B. Radunović, G. Aurelio, J. Liteta, Y. Sugawara, Ivan Stoyanov Sulev, A. Fadera
Juventus lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 25 G. Vicario
- 2 Z. Çelik
- 26 J. Lucumí
- 3 Bremer
- 15 P. Kalulu
- 12 Douglas Luiz
- 29 P. Sarr
- 31 N. González
- 22 W. McKennie
- 7 Francisco Conceição
- 9 R. Kolo Muani
Bench: F. Gatti, L. Kelly, T. Koopmeiners, E. Zhegrova, Kerim-Sam Alajbegović, A. Cambiaso, C. Pinsoglio, D. Rugani, N. Woltemade, J. Cabal
Cagliari vs Juventus head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cagliari 1 · draws 2 · Juventus 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Cagliari | 1-0 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2025-11-29 | Juventus | 2-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2025-02-23 | Cagliari | 0-1 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2024-12-17 | Juventus | 4-0 | Cagliari | Coppa Italia |
| 2024-10-06 | Juventus | 1-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2024-04-19 | Cagliari | 2-2 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2023-11-11 | Juventus | 2-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2022-04-09 | Cagliari | 1-2 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2021-12-21 | Juventus | 2-0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2021-03-14 | Cagliari | 1-3 | Juventus | Serie A |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Genoa vs Fiorentina — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Napoli v Frosinone — match page 2026-10-10
- Como v Roma — match page 2026-10-11
- Lazio v Monza — match page 2026-10-11
- Lecce vs Bologna 2026-10-11
- Sassuolo vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Atalanta vs Venezia 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Cagliari, next: Monza vs Cagliari: odds and pick
- Juventus, next: Celta Vigo vs Juventus: odds and pick