Cagliari vs Juventus preview
Cagliari hosts Juventus with the model giving Juventus a 63% chance to win. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring 12% of the time. Juventus has shown strong recent form, winning four of their last six matches, while Cagliari has won three out of six but has been less consistent.
The market suggests a 58% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score. Cagliari's expected goals stand at 0.79, while Juventus has a much higher 2.22. If Cagliari can improve their scoring, they might challenge Juventus more than expected.
Why this pick: Cagliari vs Juventus
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Cagliari 10, Juventus 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Cagliari vs Juventus: model vs market
| Source | Cagliari | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10% | 22% | 68% |
| Market | 15% | 24% | 61% |
| Published | 14% | 24% | 63% |
| Edge | -5% | -2% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.79.
- The market prices Juventus below the model: +7.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cagliari vs Juventus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 40 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 6.60 | 6.30 | -0.30 |
| Draw | 4.26 | 3.90 | -0.36 |
| Juventus | 1.50 | 1.55 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cagliari and Juventus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Cagliari / Juventus)
- 1.05 / 1.60
- Defence rating (Cagliari / Juventus)
- 1.18 / 0.58
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cagliari vs Juventus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cagliari goals. Columns: Juventus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cagliari vs Juventus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cagliari vs Juventus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cagliari | 14% | 7.26 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Juventus | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.98 |
| No | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cagliari or draw) | 37% | 2.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Juventus) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win by 2+ | 46% | 2.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cagliari and Juventus recent form
Cagliari
4W 0D 2L
Juventus
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cagliari at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Juventus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Cagliari at home only, Juventus away only.
Cagliari vs Juventus head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Cagliari 1 · draws 2 · Juventus 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Cagliari | 1-0 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2025-11-29 | Juventus | 2-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2025-02-23 | Cagliari | 0-1 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2024-10-06 | Juventus | 1-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2024-04-19 | Cagliari | 2-2 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2023-11-11 | Juventus | 2-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
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