Monza vs Cagliari preview
In the Serie A fixture between Monza and Cagliari, the 1X2 probabilities show Monza at 42%, Cagliari at 30%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, which occurs 9% of the time. Monza's expected goals stand at 1.96, while Cagliari's is 1.55.
Both teams to score has a probability of 69%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 68%. However, Monza's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Cagliari has 3 wins in the same period. This inconsistency in form could impact the match outcome, making it less predictable.
Why this pick: Monza vs Cagliari
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Monza 10, Cagliari 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Monza vs Cagliari: model vs market
| Source | Monza | Draw | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Market | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Published | 42% | 29% | 30% |
| Edge | +5% | -4% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.55.
- The market prices Monza below the model: +5.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.41, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Monza vs Cagliari odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monza, 30 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 2.16 | 2.33 | +0.17 |
| Draw | 3.18 | 3.20 | +0.02 |
| Cagliari | 3.65 | 3.15 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monza and Cagliari expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.51
- Attack rating (Monza / Cagliari)
- 1.19 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Monza / Cagliari)
- 1.32 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monza vs Cagliari score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monza goals. Columns: Cagliari goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monza vs Cagliari goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monza vs Cagliari
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monza | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.51 | |
| Cagliari | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monza or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Cagliari) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monza win by 2+ | 27% | 3.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Monza and Cagliari recent form
Monza
2W 1D 3L
Cagliari
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monza at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Cagliari away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monza at home only, Cagliari away only.
Monza vs Cagliari head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Monza 1 · draws 1 · Cagliari 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-30 | Cagliari | 3-0 | Monza | Serie A |
| 2025-01-05 | Monza | 1-2 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2024-03-16 | Monza | 1-0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2023-11-26 | Cagliari | 1-1 | Monza | Serie A |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Venezia vs Napoli 2026-10-17
- Bologna vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Roma v Genoa — match page 2026-10-17
- Udinese vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Fiorentina vs Como 2026-10-18
- AC Milan vs Atalanta 2026-10-18
- Juventus vs Lazio — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Parma Calcio 1913 v Torino — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Monza, previous: Lazio – Monza, 2026-10-11
- Cagliari, previous: Cagliari vs Juventus: odds and pick