Why this pick: Genoa vs Fiorentina
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Genoa 10, Fiorentina 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Genoa vs Fiorentina: model vs market
| Source | Genoa | Draw | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Published | 31% | 29% | 41% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Genoa vs Fiorentina odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fiorentina, 47 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 3.17 | 3.20 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.27 | -0.08 |
| Fiorentina | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Genoa and Fiorentina expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.06
- Attack rating (Genoa / Fiorentina)
- 1.00 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Genoa / Fiorentina)
- 1.05 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Genoa vs Fiorentina score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: Fiorentina goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Genoa vs Fiorentina goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Genoa vs Fiorentina
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genoa | 31% | 3.27 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Fiorentina | 41% | 2.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Genoa or draw) | 59% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Fiorentina) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fiorentina win by 2+ | 20% | 4.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Genoa and Fiorentina recent form
Genoa
1W 1D 4L
Fiorentina
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Genoa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
Fiorentina away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Genoa at home only, Fiorentina away only.
Injuries & availability
Genoa absences
- Amorim inactive
- D. Sow injury
-
E. Havel
ankle injury
- F. Meichtry muscle injury
-
L. Colombo
ankle injury
-
L. Venturino
knee injury
Fiorentina absences
-
A. Atta
abdominal strain
-
F. Parisi
knee injury
-
R. Sottil
back injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Genoa lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 J. Bijlow
- 22 J. Vásquez
- 5 L. Østigård
- 34 S. Otoa
- 77 M. Ellertsson
- 25 H. Traorè
- 32 M. Frendrup
- 3 K. Ehizibue
- 92 S. El Shaarawy
- 10 Junior Messias
- 18 M. Osmajić
Bench: M. Mitaj, T. Baldanzi, Vítinha, C. Drameh, S. Sabelli, Nikita Solodchenko, A. Marcandalli, D. Puczka, D. Sommariva, S. Wiafe, Gaël Lafont, F. Stolz
Fiorentina lineup · 4-3-3
- 43 David de Gea
- 21 Valde
- 6 L. Ranieri
- 3 R. Drăgușin
- 20 Álex Jiménez
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 42 C. Inao Oulaï
- 27 C. Ndour
- 29 W. Gnonto
- 23 Beto
- 30 Franco Mastantuono
Bench: Dodô, M. Brescianini, M. Pongračić, João Mário, L. Lezzerini, A. Njie, Pote, Mateo Pellegrino, Viery, O. Christensen, B. Mazzeo
Genoa vs Fiorentina head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Genoa 0 · draws 5 · Fiorentina 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Fiorentina | 0-0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2025-11-09 | Genoa | 2-2 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2025-02-02 | Fiorentina | 2-1 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2024-10-31 | Genoa | 0-1 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2024-04-15 | Fiorentina | 1-1 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2023-08-19 | Genoa | 1-4 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2022-01-17 | Fiorentina | 6-0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2021-09-18 | Genoa | 1-2 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2021-04-03 | Genoa | 1-1 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2020-12-07 | Fiorentina | 1-1 | Genoa | Serie A |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Napoli v Frosinone — match page 2026-10-10
- Como v Roma — match page 2026-10-11
- Lazio v Monza — match page 2026-10-11
- Lecce vs Bologna 2026-10-11
- Sassuolo vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Cagliari vs Juventus 2026-10-11
- Atalanta vs Venezia 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Genoa, next: Roma v Genoa analysis
- Fiorentina, next: Fiorentina vs Como prediction